Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Goldman: What Is Going On In The US Is “Usually Reserved For Times Of War”
Back in February, when the world was starting to become familiar with the trajectory of US debt and deficit spending under Trump’s fiscal plan, we showed a chart from Goldman which made a troubling forecast: the US fiscal situation was headed for “banana republic” status, or as Goldman put it more politely, “uncharted territory” as a result […]
Emerging Markets: What Changed – Friday, Sept. 14
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that he invited his China counterparts for another round of high-level trade negotiations. Czech central bank has signaled another imminent rate hike. The European Parliament voted to censure Hungary for eroding democratic values. The US State Department announced that it is working on the […]
Real Median Household Income Rose 1.8% In 2017; Poeverty Rate Declined
The Census Bureau reported Sept. 12 that *real* median household earnings rose 1.8% in 2017. Here’s their presentation graph: This is another score by Sentier Research, whose monthly estimates have accurately forecast the Census Bureau’s (very tardy) annual reports and showed, on an annualized basis, growth in 2017, but on an averaged basis less than that […]
EUR/USD Begins Test Of Key Resistance, USD Bounces From Monthly Lows
NEXT WEEK’S CALENDAR CALMS, BUT WILL EURO BULLS, DOLLAR BEARS SHOW THEIR HAND? This week’s economic calendar was rather heavy, particularly Thursday, and this leaves FX markets in a state of limbo as we lead into a quieter calendar for next week. The big question surrounding FX markets at the moment concern two of the […]
Bitcoin Bounces Back Ahead Of Direxion’s ETF Decision
The BTC/USD had an exciting week, recovering nicely and making a nice U-turn. Interest from Morgan Stanley pushed prices higher and so did Mike Novogratz’s comments. The technical picture is mixed for the digital coin. The price of Bitcoin made an impressive recovery, advancing from enjoying a bounce of over $400 and topping $6,500. Morgan Stanley is […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.4% In August
Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the August data for Industrial Production. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, […]
USDJPY: Retains Bullish Tone With Eyes On 112.14/50 Zone
The USDJPY pair continues to retain its upside pressure following a rally on Thursday. This development leaves risks of more recovery towards 112.14/50 levels. Further up, resistance resides at the 113.00 level. A move above here will open the door for more gain towards the 113.50 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 114.00 level […]
Dollar Surges As 10Y Yield Rises Above 3.00%
After a sharp drop in the dollar in the overnight session, which had set the greenback for its worst week since February, the BBG dollar index has surged, and was trading near session highs following today’s mixed economic data. Some have attributed the rebound to the strong revision in retail sales despite the latest miss; […]
Retail Sales: The Streak Ends
When it comes to the September Retail Sales report, it has historically been one of the worst ones relative to expectations. Based on data from our Economic Indicators Database, the headline reading has only exceeded consensus expectations five times going back to 2001. That’s less than a third of the time! This year was no exception […]
The Dollar Is Central To The Next Crisis
Introduction and summary It is now possible to pencil in how the next credit crisis is likely to develop. At its centre is an overvalued dollar over-owned by foreigners, puffed up on speculative flows driven by interest rate differentials. These must be urgently corrected by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan if […]
