Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims And The Business Cycle
Every week we post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, […]
Manufacturing Employment And Output
Today’s employment situation release depicted a picture of continuing recovery in the labor market. One interesting aspect is what is happening to the tradables sector, which I proxy with the manufacturing sector. There, the advance data indicate a slight decline. Figure 1: Manufacturing production (NAICS) (dark blue), manufacturing employment of production & nonsupervisory workers (red), aggregate […]
USD/JPY: The Japanese Yen Moves Into The Tariff Conversation
YEN STRENGTH SHOWS AS TARIFF TALK MOVES TOWARDS JAPAN The Yen caught a bid in the latter portion of this week, helping USD/JPY to reverse the entirety of the gains that had posted in the pair from Monday thru Wednesday. This continues the messy price action that’s been showing in USD/JPY since the July breakout faltered. As we came into […]
U.S. Construction Spending Gains Traction: 3 Fund Picks
The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Sep 4 that domestic construction spending picked up in the month of July. Such an increase was achieved on the back of a spike in homebuilding activity as well as construction of publicly funded schools and highways. Although the metric came in below expectations, it showed a steep rise […]
Wage Inflation And Fed Comments On An Inverted Yield Curve
(Audio length 00:13:22) Chris Temple joins me today to recap the job data and the most important aspect of this month’s data, wage inflation. With wage inflation finally starting to tick up there are new factors at play for investors. We also discuss recent comments made by NY Fed President John Williams regarding the Fed’s […]
Trump Eyes Another $267 Billion In Tariffs (And He’s Foolish Enough To Do It)
As Trump ponders $200 billion in tariff threats, he eyes another $267 billion on top of that. Please consider Trump says has tariffs ready for further $267 billion worth of Chinese imports. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he has tariffs ready to go on a further $267 billion worth of Chinese imports, as […]
S&P 500 ETFs – Friday, Sept. 7
The S&P 500 index is arguably the most well-known worldwide. It is based on the market cap of the 500 largest companies in the U.S. The first-ever ETF, introduced in 1989, hoped to mimic the index, but was short-lived due to a lawsuit. Several S&P 500 ETFs have been brought to market since, and we […]
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed – Friday, Sept.7
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Philippine central bank signaled another big hike. Poland central bank appears to be moving its forward guidance out further. Russia officials are sending confusing signals regarding monetary policy. Russia officials stand ready to support the ruble debt market if new US sanctions negatively impact it. South Africa’s African National […]
The Payroll Ritual
Payroll Friday continues to be among the more absurd rituals of the finance industry. That’s saying something because in this business there are many that in any other context would be laughed out of the discipline. Never mind the impropriety of attempting to use a single monthly yardstick for economic progress, over the last four […]
