Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
July 2018 Leading Index: Significantly Slowed
This post is a review of the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index and all major leading indicators – and their trends are generally slowing. Analyst Opinion of the Leading Indicator Forecasts Most of the leading indicators are based on factors which are known to have significant backward revisions – and one cannot take any of their trends […]
Dollar, Yields Surge After Wages Come In Hot
Wage inflation is back with a bang, and so is speculation that the Fed will be forced to hike far longer than the market expects, which of course means much more pain for emerging markets. Because just as EM currencies breathed a sigh of relief that the dollar may have finally peaked after 4 weeks […]
Emerging Markets Stabilize While Euro Shrugs Off Disappointing Data
The global capital markets are finishing the week on a more stable note than it began. Indeed, since the middle of the week, many of the besieged emerging market currencies, like the South African rand, Turkish lira, and Argentine peso have posted some corrective upticks. Today, the MSCI Emerging Market Index is snapping a […]
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update – Friday, September 7
The latest index reading came in at 20.7, up from 19.5 the previous week. RecessionAlert launched an alternative to ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. RecessionAlert emphasizes that […]
The Stock Market Is Experiencing “Sector Rotation”. Is This Bearish?
The stock market has been experiencing sector rotation recently. Earlier this year: the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow Now: the Dow is outperforming the Nasdaq (Dow is catching up). Conventional technical analysis would have you believe that this is a bearish sign for the stock market. Conventional technical analysis states that “the bull market is dead […]
Gold Rebound Fizzles Amid Upbeat U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report
GOLD TALKING POINTS Gold prices are back under pressure as fresh updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report boost bets for higher interest rates, and the precious metal may continue to lose ground ahead of Fed meeting on tap for later this month as the central bank is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest […]
Rail Week Ending Saturday, September 1: August Combined Movements Up 4.5%
Week 35 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data This was a very strong week for rail. We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from […]
Infinera Announces Pricing Of $350 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Sept. 07, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Infinera (Nasdaq: INFN), provider of Intelligent Transport Networks, announced today the pricing of $350 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2024 in an underwritten registered public offering. The offering was upsized from an originally announced $275 million in aggregate principal amount. Infinera expects the offering […]
Hiring At US Companies Rebounded In August
Private payrolls in the US increased by a seasonally adjusted 204,000 in August, marking a sharply stronger gain over the previous month’s revised 153,000 advance, the Labor Department reports. Meantime, the year-over-over trend held steady at a 1.9% pace for the sixth month in a row. Today’s numbers reaffirm that the labor market continues to expand at […]
Verizon’s Familiar Business Model Charms Investors
This week I’m seeking a prestigious and long-term dividend-paying stock from the communications services sector. That sector has companies that connect us electronically in either of two ways: telecommunications, or pay TV. Some do both. Not this one, it’s strictly Telco: Today I’m reviewing a large-cap telecom outfit named Verizon Communications, Inc. Its trading ticker […]
