Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Bullish Sentiment Remains Elevated
Individual investors continue to be in an optimistic mood, although bullish sentiment did see a slight decline in the latest week. According to the weekly survey from AAII, bullish sentiment dropped from 43.5% down to 42.22%, which is still on the high side of the recent range. It’s also the first back to back weeks where […]
Micron Slides As Baird Sees Gross Margin Nearing Peak
Shares of Micron (MU) are sliding this morning after Baird analyst Tristan Gerra said the stock is no longer a top semi large-cap idea as gross margin is near a peak. Furthermore, the analyst believes DRAM pricing is also likely peaking in the third quarter as NAND oversupply worsens. Meanwhile, his peer at Deutsche Bank […]
The Dark Years Are Here II
Hindsight is the most exact of all sciences. Most people who live their life backwards have a miserable life. Having been around for a while, I tend not to look back, especially not at negative events. Much better to embrace uncertainty since everything going forward from here is uncertain. We can’t do anything about the […]
EUR/USD Initiates Bullish Series Despite Disappointing Euro-Area Data
EURO TALKING POINTS EUR/USD climbs to a fresh weekly-high (1.1659) even as data prints coming out of the euro-area instill a weakened outlook for the monetary union, and recent price action warns of a larger advance as the exchange rate initiates a fresh series of higher highs & lows. EUR/USD INITIATES BULLISH SERIES DESPITE DISAPPOINTING EURO-AREA […]
Peak Prices, Capital Waves Receding: Tsunami Alert
The Canadian dollar has fallen nearly 5% against the US dollar year-to-date and compared to emerging market (EM) currencies that decline is small. Of the 24 most traded EM currencies, only the Mexican Peso has managed to eke out a small gain against the greenback year to date, while several others are down 10% and […]
WTI Tumbles On Inventory, Demand Disappointments
WTI has traded sideways (below $69) since last night’s smaller than expected crude draw from API, but algos could not figure out what to do as crude inventories dropped notably but products and Cushing saw stocks rise. Investors “will look at export numbers to get a handle on global demand to see if it is softening”, Phil […]
First Look At August: ADP Says 163K New Nonfarm Private Jobs
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP August estimate of 163K new nonfarm private employment jobs, […]
Strength In The Services Sector
The release of the August ISM Non-Manufacturing report handily exceeded forecasts coming in at a level of 58.5 versus consensus estimates for a reading of 56.8. The 1.7 point spread between the actual and report number was also the biggest beat relative to expectations since the January report which was released on 2/5. On a combined basis, […]
August 2018 ADP Job Growth Is 163,000
ADP reported non-farm private jobs growth at 163,000 which was under expectations. Analyst Opinion of ADP Employment Situation This month the rate of ADPs private employment year-over-year growth remained in the tight range seen over this year. Last month’s employment numbers were revised marginally downward. ADP employment has not been a good predictor of BLS […]
How (And Where) To Stay Bullish On IG Credit
Investors are nervous. In a recent JPMorgan survey,1 the bank highlighted that investment-grade (IG) credit would likely face several headwinds through the end of the year due to increased supply, less-favorable fundamentals and noise from the midterm elections. In our view, a straightforward way to combat these challenges is by taking a fundamental approach and increasing positions in the short […]
