Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Long SPX, Short Oil
For some time now Oil has been strongly positively correlated to SPX. I could even say that Oil could be leading SPX price. I have been a dip buyer in SPX around 2720 but price has not made any significant progress to my short-term target of 2800. Instead my automated system has turned bearish. What […]
What Is The Primary Cause Of Inflation?
Written by Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, www.nofica.com What is the complex relationship among inflation, deficits, interest rates, oil prices, tax cuts, and GDP? It takes only two things to keep people in chains: . The ignorance of the oppressed and the treachery of their leaders. To answer the title question, we begin with three questions: What is the primary cause of […]
Interest Rate Up Again As Fed Sticks To 2018 Forecast – Gold Spikes
PRICE OF GOLD BREAKS SLUMP ON FOMC DECISION In its first meeting with Jay Powell in the chair, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States Federal Reserve raised the nation’s benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to a range of 1.5 to 1.75 percent, exactly one point higher than one year ago at this […]
Notes On The Fed Announcements
Listening to the Fed Chair’s press conference, there was one thing where I disagreed with what Powell was saying. He said a few times that they only made one decision at the FOMC meeting, that of raising the Fed Funds rate and the reverse repo rate by 0.25%. They made another decision as well. They decided […]
Will BoE Surprise The Market Later?
I anticipate BOE to be hawkish. Consider to Short EUR/GBP. BOE raised rates for the first time in more than a decade in November and are preparing to release their latest policy decision later. Markets had started to price in further tightening in May even before the positive upturn in wage growth, while a second […]
Gold Rises After Fed Statement
Gold prices ended Wednesday’s session up $21.32 an ounce as the U.S. dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve took a less hawkish view on monetary policy than some market players were expecting. The yellow metal is being supported not only by a slump in the greenback, but also by worries about a potential trade war […]
Hawks, Doves And Jays: Takeaways From First Fed Rate Hike Under Jerome “Jay” Powell
In Jerome Powell’s first meeting as chair, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates, marking its sixth hike for the expansion thus far. The decision itself wasn’t a surprise1 — the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has declared mission accomplished2 on the full employment component of its mandate, the global cycle has strengthened and inflation, […]
A Declaration Of Trade War On China?
Accounts suggest Section 301 based sanctions on China on up to $60 billion worth of goods. [1] [2] Retaliation seems a real possibility. It’s interesting to consider likely targets, geographically. Figure 1: 2017 state level exports to China, in billions of USD. Source: BuCensus via ITA. Figure 2: 2017 exports to China as share of total state level exports. Source: BuCensus […]
Top 3 Commodities To Watch In Spring 2018
As we scan the market looking for meaningful moves that could eventually lead to important trends, we noticed the following: Commodities, in general, are in a sideways pattern, most are consolidating before the next big move. For some, the consolidation lasted for a long to a very long period of time, which makes me think […]
