Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
PMIs Signal “US Economy Has Cooled” In Q2, Manufacturing “Has Led The Slowdown”
As US economic ‘hard data’ has collapsed in recent months, US manufacturing and services industries PMIs ‘soft data’ have both tumbled, and preliminary August data extended that streak with slower business activity growth reflected the weakest rise in new order volumes since December 2017. US Manufacturing and Services PMIs miss expectations and drop for the 3rd […]
The Market’s Four Directions
Apache Crown Dancers wearing black masks represent the four directions. North, South, East, and West. So far this week, Transportation (IYT ) posted a topping pattern based on a new high followed by a high-volume break of the prior day’s lows. At the same time, Semiconductors tested the key weekly moving average, held it and […]
How “Wealthy” Would We Be If We Stopped Borrowing Trillions Every Year?
These charts reflect a linear system that is wobbling into the first stages of non-linear destabilization. The widespread presumption is the U.S. is wealthy beyond words and will remain so as far as the eye can see: wealthy enough to fund trillion-dollar weapons systems, trillion-dollar endless wars, multi-trillion dollar Medicare for all, multi-trillion dollar Universal Basic […]
Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News
At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more. That’s been the basis of this thing […]
Trade War: No News Isn’t Necessarily Good News
The US and China met the last two days to discuss trade. We’d love it if we heard of an imminent joint press conference. Maybe we’d hear some good news. But so far we haven’t heard such news. The Tell Uncharacteristically, President Trump didn’t expect much to come out of this meeting. When Trump has been confident ahead of […]
In-Line EIA Print Supports Nat Gas
September natural gas prices were falling on weak cash prices ahead of this morning’s EIA print, but a reported injection that was just a touch below expectations helped prices find support and settle slightly higher on the day. The role of the print was seen in a stronger winter strip relative to the fall or […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – The Darker Gods Of A Low, Dishonest Age
“In the past 5 years the amount of UST’s the US needs to roll over every year has risen by nearly 15% CAGR, the while US nominal GDP is just over 2%. A 1200bp gap isn’t sustainable for very long, yet the overwhelming consensus [assumption] is that it’s sustainable for decades”. Luke Gromen “The first […]
Market Talk – Thursday, August 23
With core China and the Hang Seng indices trading near their 52week lows, this is the direct opposite to core US indices that are making historic highs! Today’s price action almost seemed typical of what we have seen over this past year. US markets are treading water at their highs, whilst Shanghai, Hang Seng, STI, […]
Italy Capital Flight Escalates: Highest Two-Month Total Ever
Capital Flight in Italy escalates at a record pace. It’s seen in Target2 balances and spreads rather than an EM crisis. Thanks to Holger Zschaepitz for this set of Tweets. Silent Capital Flight #Italy saw record-high capital outflow of €76bn in May-Jun, larger than €51bn outflow in Jun-Jul2011 and €56bn in Feb-Mar2012, Citi has calculated. […]
