Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
When Does Trade Adjust After Being Liberalized?
from the St Louis Fed When a country liberalizes trade, trade tends to increase substantially. However, the full effects take many years, and imports tend to dominate exports in the short run, according to a recent Economic Synopses essay. Economist Fernando Leibovici and Senior Research Associate Jonas Crews considered a country open to trade if five conditions were met: Average […]
EUR/AUD – Headed For 1.55?
The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar today on the back of cautious comments from the ECB and weaker industrial production. Everyone from ECB President Draghi to members Praet, Coeure and Villeroy all felt that inflation is low and therefore policy needs to patient and persistent because the currency’s strength could drive prices […]
Mild CPI Report Changes The Markets’ Tone
Inflation Data Shows Modest Price Increases After a few months of acceleration in inflation, the CPI and PCE reports have become the most important economic reports to the market. Investors and economists expect a big pick up in inflation this year. I have switched from being bullish on inflation to being bearish on inflation based […]
Market Talk – Wednesday, March 14
All of the core Asian markets suffered from US uncertainty today with closes mostly in the region of -0.5% lower on the day. Continued uncertainty surrounding the growing fears of a trade war is spooking markets everywhere. The Nikkei finished a four day rally with a -0.9% decline. There was not much volatility there today […]
Gold Continues To Oscillate Despite Positive Forces
It’s difficult at present to understand why gold is failing to respond to its traditional drivers, particularly as these are not in short supply. First geopolitical events ranging from Donald Trump’s tariffs to the Salisbury poisonings where the Russian state has been alleged to have used chemical weapons against two of its citizens. And of […]
Weekly Heating Oil Prices – Wednesday, March 14
We’ve used data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which publishes price data weekly on home heating oil in 38 states by dollar-per-gallon before taxes. Unlike natural gas and electricity, home heating oil is provided by independent retailers. The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $3.06, down two cents from last week and up 40 […]
Will The Bitcoin Price Reach $1 Million By 2020?
It seems like a ridiculous claim. With Bitcoin crashing from a record high at the end of 2017, how could we expect a price of $1 million or above? Anti-virus software pioneer John McAfee is extremely optimistic about the future of cryptocurrency, suggesting that the bitcoin price will continue to skyrocket and hit $1 million by […]
EC March Madness Eve
With the heart of college basketball’s biggest tournament set to kick-off tomorrow, you can bet that a lot of traders will be looking to make sure they have access to the games at their desks (or via their phones). Before the age of mobile devices and streaming, it used to be that if you wanted […]
Checking In On The Four Intersecting Cycles
Correspondent James D. recently asked for an update on the four intersecting cycles I’ve been writing about for the past 10 years. Here’s the chart I prepared back in 2008 of four long-term cycles: Generational (political/social) Price inflation/wage stagnation (economic) Credit/debt expansion/contraction (financial) Relative affordability of energy (resources) The key point that’s not communicated in the […]
