Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Labor Force Participation, Unemployment, And Wages: An Update
About a year ago I wrote a series of posts on the relationship between the unemployment rate, labor force participation, and wage growth. Especially in view of last Friday’s jobs report, which showed blockbuster hiring, but a continuation of tepid wage growth over 8 years into the expansion, now is a good time for an […]
Consumer Spending Projections
Every month the NY Fed surveys consumers as to what they will spend in the upcoming year. The Downtrend is still intact. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that consumers are more optimistic. In the latest set of SCE results, 40.2 percent of respondents say that their household financial situation has improved compared to […]
Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The New Normal Continues
There has been a lot of talk about the economic impact of the recent tax reform. All of it, including the analyses that include lots of fancy math, amounts to nothing more than speculation, usually informed by little more than the political bias of the analyst. I am guilty of that too to some degree […]
What Lies Ahead For Treasury ETFs?
U.S. Treasury yields have been somewhat seesawing as a multitude of factors impact the markets at the moment. The economy registered strong jobs growth in February, while wage growth has been soft. Initially, Treasury yields scaled higher on strength in jobs data, only to fall following strong demand for government debt auctions. Widening budget deficits […]
It’s A Trader’s Market Now
February volatility has clearly signaled a regime change. We’re no longer in a market that rewards ‘hodlers’ to think less and hold more. It’s a traders market now. The S&P finally snapped that ridiculous no pullback streak we’ve all been watching on Fintwit. (Picture below via Bespoke.) And that break caused the largest short […]
China Toward Sustainable Growth
In the past, Chinese growth was too much fueled by credit. Now it is becoming more sustainable and the emphasis is shifting on living standards, poverty reduction, and environmental protection. In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, […]
Strong U.S. Retail Sales Report To Tame EUR/USD Rebound
TRADING THE NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES A 0.3% rise in U.S. Retail Sales may spark a limited reaction as it does little to alter the monetary policy outlook, but a marked rebound in household consumption may curb the recent advance in EUR/USD as it boosts the outlook for growth and inflation. Signs of growing demand […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Nonfarm Employment
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
Above The 40 – Here We Go Again – Stock Market Trips Over Trade War Talk
AT40 = 48.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 51.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary It’s like deja vu again. The smoke just barely cleared from defusing Trump’s tripwire over trade wars, and now the market is wrestling with rumors that President Trump is considering […]
AUD/USD Daily Analysis – Wednesday, March 14
AUD/USD stays above a bullish trend line on its 4-hour and remains in the uptrend from 0.7712. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 0.7950 area. On the downside, a clear break below the trend line support would suggest that the […]
