Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Gold Tumbles Below $1200 In Welcome Sign For Global Contagion
For the first time since March 2017, spot gold is trading back below $1,200 as a surge in the dollar seems to be overwhelming any potential safe-haven flows into the barbarous relic. Bloomberg believes this is a positive sign for global contagion fears as unlike in past crises, for instance, Greece – gold and the dollar are […]
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has done it again. In an attempt to garner some press, the head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department Alejandro Werner forecasted that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will reach 1,000,000% by year’s end. By my calculations, this inflation forecast implies that the exchange rate will reach 923 million VEF/USD by […]
Inflation: An X-Ray View Of The Components – Monday, August 13
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how […]
Turkey Iran And Shale
Oil prices are trying to balance the risks to oil supply versus the risks to demand. The risk to the demand side of the equation is coming out of Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vowing not to be brought to its knees even as it is him that has driven the Turkish economy […]
E Forex Analysis Of EUR/USD For Monday, August 13
First, we look into the previous day trade and what happened on August 10, 2018, and the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.15256 and went high at 1.15357 and gone to low at 1.13873 and finally closed at 1.14098. The calculated pivot point for the day is 1.14442 The difference between high and low was 148 […]
Sensex Ends 224 Points Lower; Banking And Energy Stocks Witness Selling
Indian share markets continued to trade in the red during the closing hours of the trading session and ended the day on a negative note. Losses were largely seen in the energy sector and banking sector. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 224 points (down 0.6%) and the NSE Nifty closed lower by 74 points (down 0.7%). The BSE Mid […]
Bitcoin Daily Forecast – Monday, August 13
BTC/USD Bitcoin markets fell during the trading session on wiping out about half of the gains from Thursday. We still hover above the crucial $6000 level though, so over the weekend, we may see a bit of a bounce in low volume environments. However, there is a daily downtrend line that crosses right around the […]
SPY Once Again Rejected At Channel Resistance – More Downside Likely Ahead
SPY last week was rejected at channel resistance, coming up $0.63 short of surpassing the all-time high of $286.63 reached January 26. The path of least resistance is down. A covered put might help. There are interesting dynamics at play in earnings estimates for US large-caps. Operating estimates for S&P 500 companies are sideways to […]
E Markets: Another War?
We started with trade wars, moved to currency wars and now are in economic war. Turkish President Erdogan uses the term as he rails like King Lear against the storm. The difference maybe just words but the sentiment is that all tools are available for retaliation. The sanctions from the US on Russia and Turkey […]
Spillover Emerging
Plenty of interesting moves in the markets lately. Top of every investor’s mind is the Turkish Lira and its ongoing slide. Also, the Russian Ruble, Mexican Peso, and the South African Rand are making massive movements Some experts are calling it an emerging market currency rout. The thing is, emerging market currencies shouldn’t necessarily correlate […]
