Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
EURUSD: Lira’s Collapse Putting Pressure On The Euro
On Friday the 10th of August, trading on the US dollar index closed up by a decent amount. The dollar’s rally against the lira had a ripple effect on other currencies. The lira’s rapid drop on Friday took its toll on the euro, with the EURUSD pair, in turn, dropping to 1.1388. According to the Financial […]
Turkey’s Crisis Could Send Euro Lower
The crumbling of Turkey’s economy could drag eurozone down, short EUR/USD? Turkish Lira went into freefall last Friday after President Trump slapped tariffs on Turkey’s steel exports. The trouble Turkey is facing is not just a localized issue, but a contagious one. European Central Bank is worried about non-hedged exposure of European banks to Turkish […]
Stocks Outlook – Monday, August 13
Thoughts Citigroup’s Panic/Euphoria Model registered “euphoria” last week. Not as bad as you think it is, but watch out if this reading persists for a few months. Korea’s stock market is sinking. Not a “canary in the coal mine” for the U.S. stock market. Net earnings revisions are still positive. Medium-long term bullish sign for […]
Crypto Bubble Unwind Images: Fast In Altcoins, Slower In Bitcoin
Ripple, the number three cryptocurrency is down 89% from the top, Ethereum 76%, Bitcoin 67%. The cryptocurrency bubble is unwinding rapidly from the bottom up. Bitcoin is holding up the best. Here’s a set of images of the three leading cryptos. I created the charts at approximately 1:00 PM on August 11. Bitcoin the Top […]
When Mainstream Economics Was Wrong, Mark Thornton Was Right
In the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, the economics profession suffered a blow to what reputation it had. But unlike most of his colleagues, Mark Thornton was vindicated by 2008. Mark has been a voice of sanity at times when the wild interventions of the Federal Reserve have caused otherwise sensible people to […]
Chart: Economic Noise Index
Regular readers will be familiar with the “Economic Noise Index”, which combines the signal from the economic policy uncertainty index and the economic surprise index to display positive vs negative economic noise. Both signals are standardized using a z-score. Anyway, reason I highlight it is the indicator has rolled over and stayed soft vs the market […]
USD/JPY Path Of Least Is Resistance Is Down
The Turkish crisis is spreading and causing a risk-off sentiment all over the world. The Japanese yen enjoys the safe-haven flows and rises, sending the USD/JPY tumbling down. What’s next? The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the first step to recovery is overcoming 110.40, which is the convergence of the Bolinger Band one-day Lower, the Pivot Point one-month Support […]
GBP/USD Breakout Accelerates Bearish Momentum
GBP/USD 4 hour Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on GBP/USD motive wave The GBP/USD broke the support line (dotted blue) of the downtrend channel. The bearish breakout is behaving very impulsively, which indicates that the swing is a potential wave 3 (green). A bearish break could extend the 3rd wave towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 vs […]
Crude Oil Prices Rise Despite Market Turmoil, Gold Stuck In Place
Crude oil prices turned higher Friday after the IEA upgraded demand forecasts for 2018 and 2019 while saying that supply fears have abated. This is after the OPEC-led group of top producers scaled back coordinated output cuts. Traders seemed to interpret the news to mean that pressure to step up shipments further has receded. Meanwhile, gold prices remained stuck in […]
AUDUSD Daily Analysis – Monday, August 13
AUDUSD extended its downside movement from 0.7453 to as low as 0.7270. Further decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 0.7200 area. Resistance is at 0.7321, only a break of this level could bring the price back to 0.7360 area.
