Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Bond Yield To Stock Yield Spread Sufficiently Wide To Challenge Stock Returns
A little over a year ago I noted the yield on the 10-year Treasury surpassed the dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index. With rising bond yields, there becomes a point when the bond yield is sufficiently high relative to the yield on stocks that bonds can challenge stock returns. In that earlier article, I referenced a […]
Hurricane Wholesale
Wholesale sales were up 10% year-over-year in January. But like every other economic account, the bulk of those gains were registered in the aftermath of Harvey and Irma. Seasonally-adjusted, wholesale sales predictably declined in January. Compared to other data points like imports, it’s literally the same pattern. Petroleum sales do account for a lot of the […]
Markets Happy As It Climbs “The Wall Of Worry”
Update: March 2018 The market is very, very happy. The fiscal stimulus and lack of major “inflation scare” is helping keep markets steady, yet trending higher on a positive note. So here’s the wall of worry that is getting built. Economic growth is again topping. Inflation could run up faster than expected Slowdown in Europe and China […]
Brexit, Media Blamed As London House Prices Plunge Most Since 2009
After a decade of soaring prices, spurred on by hot money flows from Russia and China, London’s 2017 property slowdown is accelerating in 2018 as Bloomberg reports house prices are falling at the fastest pace since the depths of the recession almost a decade ago, with the capital’s most expensive areas seeing the biggest declines. Average prices fell 2.6% […]
Sensex Trades In Green; Realty Sector Leads Gains
After opening the day in green, share markets in India have continued the momentum and are presently trading above the dotted line. Sectoral indices are trading mixed with stocks in the and stocks in the PSU sector trading in green. While stocks in the IT sector are trading in red. The BSE Sensex is up by 95 points (up 0.3%) and the NSE Nifty is trading […]
Record Low Volatility In Precious Metals And What It Means
The past 18 months have been difficult for precious metals investors. If you had known Donald Trump would be elected and the US Dollar would soon begin a nearly 15% decline, you would have expected Gold to blow past its 2016 high. You would have been shocked to see the gold miners and junior gold […]
Now “Inflation” Is A Concern?
As odd as some of these concerns are, they serve a purpose in that having some skepticism in the market does serve a purpose in not letting things get too out of hand. “Davidson” submits: The consensus on inflation is that it will rise sharply. The history on correctly predicting inflation trends leaves one with little […]
Gold And Silver Short-Term Outlook; Gold To Silver Ratio
Today when Doc (Richard Postma) and I chatted we first focused on the gold to silver ratio that is close to the 80 level. Over the past 20 years, the ratio typically rolls over around that level. This ties into our outlook for both the metals over the next couple weeks. (Audio length 00:07:31)
Does Strong Economic Growth Equate To High Factor Returns?
Written by Nicolas Rabener EQUITY FACTORS & REAL GDP GROWTH Summary: Economic cycles have a clear impact on factor performance Some factors show pro-cyclical while others highlight anti-cyclical characteristics Given that real GDP is not published in real-time, it is unlikely effective for factor selection INTRODUCTION Financial commentators frequently explain a rising stock market by the […]
Bitcoin: To The Pit Of Misery
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been dominated by extreme price fluctuations throughout their histories. This has enabled savvy (or lucky) investors to strike it rich, particularly if they were able to get in on their investments early and before digital currencies became broadly popular in the past couple of years. On the other hand, though, […]
