Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Rationalizing Those Peak-Cycle Numbers, Part 1: Investors “Unconcerned” About Record Corporate Debt
A branch of journalism that might be called, “don’t worry, be happy, because this time is different” tends to pop up at the peak of cycles when imbalances that caused past crashes start to reemerge. Eager to keep the gravy train going, business publications send reporters out to interview industry experts (who are making fortunes […]
USD/JPY Weekly Analysis – Sunday, March 11
USD/JPY broke above the bearish trend line on the daily chart. A further rally to test 107.90 key resistance could be expected next week. A breakout of this level would indicate that the downside movement from 113.75 had completed at 105.24 already, then a further rise towards 109.00 could be seen. On the downside, as […]
How Trump Tariffs Could Impact The U.S. Auto Industry
President Trump recently lent his support to the Commerce Department recommendation for raising import tariff on aluminum and steel. The new tariff of 25% on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum will go into effect in 15 days on imports from all countries except Canada and Mexico, with which the North American Free Trade […]
Australian Dollar May Leave Its US Cousin To Make The Weather
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish The Australian Dollar may lack clear domestic drivers this week If so that will leave the US Dollar resolutely in charge of direction That may well mean the Aussie heads lower, if not necessarily very far The Australian Dollar faces a week rather short of likely economic cues, with the March monetary policy meeting from […]
Trump Provides Clarity To EU: “Big Deficit We Tax Cars”
The EU wants clarity of US tariffs. Trump provides clarity, but the EU is not happy with it. In “frank but fruitless” talks, Trump Provides ‘Clarity’ on EU Tariffs. Hours after European Union trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom said she had “no immediate clarity” on whether the bloc will be let off the hook from planned U.S. […]
“Where To From Here”: Why Goldman’s Client Are Confused
Back in early February, after the great volatility explosion which sent the VIX to 50, killed the XIV ETF and which we now know was precipitated by the market’s misreading of the sharp January rising average hourly earnings print (which just as we said at the time, was due to a drop in the workweek and little else as […]
Weekly Forex Forecast – March 11
GBP/CHF The British pound exploded to the upside during the week against the Swiss franc, showing signs of strength yet again. It looks as if the 1.30 level is going to offer support, and I think that pullbacks will bring in value hunters to try to reach towards the 1.35 handle. This is a market […]
Is Now The Best Time For Commodity Investing?
In long-term investing one has to keep in mind a typical sequence, during economic expansion the first asset class to top is treasuries. Then stocks top and, finally, commodities. Look at the chart below: source: Stockcharts.com The chart shows this rule in practice. If I am correct, treasuries had topped in 2016 (blue circle). […]
GBP/USD Forecast Mar. 12-16 – Hammond Has The Hammer
GBP/USD had a relatively narrow range of trading and eventually ended the week higher. The new budget is the main event in a week that will certainly see Brexit talk moving markets once again. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. UK services PMI beat expectations and the bucked the trend […]
U.S. Oil Producers Projected To Eat OPEC’s Lunch
Recently, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BP updated their outlooks for U.S. oil production. All of these projections have one thing in common: Over the next few years, U.S. production growth is going to far outstrip OPEC’s production growth. As a result, the U.S. will gain market share at OPEC’s expense. […]
