Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Three Key Takeaways From December 2017 FOMC Minutes For Gold
Yesterday, the minutes of the FOMC December meeting were released. What do they say about the Fed’s stance and what do they mean for the gold market? The Fed Is Divided over Number of Hikes in 2018 At the December meeting, the U.S. central bank increased the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range 1.25-1.50 […]
Q4 2017- Taxes, Pensions, Ratings
The fourth quarter was dominated by tax reform and its effects on the supply and pricing of municipal bonds. The prospect that one of President Trump’s major initiatives would finally be passed by year-end buoyed the stock market. For a recap of the tax law changes and effects on the municipal market, please see John Mousseau’s […]
Crypto Benefactors Of Liberty Are Rising Up
One of the most intriguing aspects of Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged is that the novel’s protagonists actually have great wealth and thus, the power to really change the world. It was precisely this wealth born of value creation that allowed Rand’s heroes to leave behind their booming industries and establish Galt’s Gulch. And by doing so, our […]
Ride This Market
My Swing Trading Approach With the market gapping up, I will be increasing my stops, but I am less inclined to add new positions at this juncture of the rally. Indicators VIX – Dropped down to 9.15 and even spent some time below 9. This is the area we tend to see some bounces in the […]
Predicting Stock Returns Using Firm Characteristics
A few weeks ago, we did a deep dive into the factors versus characteristics debate. One of the reasons we’ve brought up this debate is due to the fact that “factor” loadings (from regressions) are arguably not as helpful as portfolio characteristics. In other words, knowing a portfolio P/E ratio is more informative for forecasting expected […]
Buyout Deal Activity Keeps Its Momentum In 2017
Written by Preqin Number of deals keeps track with recent years, while total value rises from 2016. In 2017, private equity-backed buyout deals remained on par with 2016’s deal activity, with 4,191 deals worth a total of 347bn. Preqin expects these figures to rise by about 5% as more information becomes available, putting the year broadly level with the […]
The S&P 500, Dow And Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs – Thursday, Jan. 4
This update is in response to a standing request for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. It includes the latest monthly close data. Here are two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price […]
China Pushing To Be The World Leader In AI
While the media is caught up in crpytocurrency mania, the true game changing technology that investors should be focused on is artificial intelligence. From self-driving cars to Dr. Robot, AI is going to change our lives in profound ways in the near future. Russian President Vladimir Putin says, “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russian, but […]
EUR/USD Maintains Above 1.2000 As USD Weakness Continues Into 2018
The U.S. Dollar’s down-trend just celebrated a birthday. It was just a year and a day ago that DXY set a fresh 14-year high at 103.82. As we came into last year, little looked to stand in the way of the Greenback’s bullish ascent, as the ‘Trump Trade’ aka the ‘reflation trade’ continued to drive investors into […]
WTI/RBOB Rise After Biggest Crude Draw Since August
WTI/RBOB were sinking into the DOE data, despite API’s solid crude draw data, after tagging $62/$1.81 overnight. Official data confirmed API’s with the seventh straight week of crude builds (biggest crude build since Aug) and gasoline draws but it was distillates’ massive build (most since Dec 2016) that stood out. A pull-back in prices might be seen if builds […]
