Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Is The Fed Model A Good Valuation Tool?
Should investors use bond yields as a baseline to determine if stocks are over-or-under valued? If you believe in the “Fed Model,” your answer is “yes”. The model instructs investors to compare the S&P 500’s earnings yield (Earnings/Price, the inverse of the P/E ratio) to the 10-Year Treasury yield: If the Earnings Yield is above the […]
The Emerging Market Contagion Flowchart
There is a striking pattern of regularity how every time the dollar spikes, or sufficient high level, emerging market contagion usually follows. Yes, of course, “each time is different”, and frequently there are idiosyncratic factors but for the most part, the one precipitating factor to turmoil in emerging markets (at first, as it then spreads […]
Tesla’s Potential Outcomes
Unfortunately, Elon Musk’s “funding secured” comment last week was not as secure as previously hoped. Clean Up Now the board has selected a special committee which, for one protects Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) from any more Musk tweets about going private. The Tesla press release today said, “no Going Private Transaction will be consummated without […]
FV Are FANG Investors Playing The Role Of Greater Fools?
Introduction The greater fool theory is an investing metaphor that suggests that if you pay more for a stock than it is worth (intrinsic value indicates) that you are only doing this on the basis that a fool greater than you will come along and willingly pay you more. When you think about it, the […]
Are FANG Investors Playing The Role Of Greater Fools? Analyze Out Loud Analysis Of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix And Google
Introduction The greater fool theory is an investing metaphor that suggests that if you pay more for a stock than it is worth (intrinsic value indicates) that you are only doing this on the basis that a fool greater than you will come along and willingly pay you more. When you think about it, the […]
S&P 500 Industry Groups Vs 50-Day Moving Averages
It was a nice day for US markets Tuesday as the S&P 500 broke a streak of four down days in a row and avoided setting the record for the longest losing streak since the 2016 election. The table below summarizes where individual S&P 500 Industry Groups stand on both a YTD basis in terms […]
Short-Term Heat Keeps Natural Gas Bid
The September natural gas contract settled up around a percent on the day as strong cash prices got prices moving higher this morning. After dipping late last week and remaining flat yesterday, Henry Hub cash prices rose solidly today. In our Morning Update, we outlined that stronger cash prices today combined with a strong strip […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – Unsustainable – Stock Option Expiration On Friday
Stocks managed to rally today. US Dollar and paper are being viewed as safer investments given the relative strength of the US economy and the current interest rate tightening bias at the Fed. Gold and silver had a dead cat bounce after yesterday’s steep declines. Let’s see if that bottom starts forming around here. Indicators […]
Coca-Cola’s BodyArmor Deal Seen As Negative For Pepsi, Keurig Dr Pepper
In latest attempt to break Gatorade’s lock on the sports market, Coca-Cola (KO) announced it is buying a stake in BodyArmor, the sports drink startup backed by Kobe Bryant and other athletes. Commenting on the news, Evercore ISI analyst Robert Ottenstein told investors that it views Coca-Cola’s stake in BodyArmor as a “clear positive” for […]
Market Talk- Tuesday, August 14
It was good to see a healthy 2.28% bounce in the Nikkei today, especially after yesterdays 2% decline. Unfortunately, some of this was at the expense of the currency as the Yen lost 0.5% back to a 111 handle. The currency drop helped exporters recover some of yesterdays losses, but there is still plenty of […]
