Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Turkish Crisis Used As An Excuse For Pullback
Turkish Crisis – Stocks Selloff On Monday Although I mentioned in a previous article emerging market weakness could be a catalyst which helps cause the American economy to decelerate in 2019, I think the Turkish crisis is being used as an excuse for an overbought market to selloff. The S&P 500 declined 0.4% and the […]
Household Debt And Credit Report: Up By $82B In Q2
The latest household debt for Q2 2018 was up 0.6% from Q1 and currently at $13.29T and at its peak. Here is an excerpt from the latest press release: NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household […]
Forget About Turkey: Asia Is The Elephant In The Room
Back in November 2016, the BIS picked up on a topic we have often discussed over the years, namely the critical role that dollar abundance (or shortage) plays in defining market stress, and going one step further, published a research report which made the striking claim that while the VIX was now dead as an indicator […]
Gold Bugs Just Can’t Catch A Break
It’s been a bad year to be a gold bug: after moving up from $1300 to $1360 through the month of January, gold has dropped sharply through Q2 and Q3 to date, dropping below $1200 as of writing. While an 8% drop year-to-date is hardly an earthshattering development (lately, that’s been just a bad day […]
Three Things I Think I Think – Shrinkage, Inflation & Trickle Down
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Shrinkage in the markets! There has been a lot of chatter lately about the shrinking of the public markets. This NY Times piece says the shrinkage is a problem for everyone. It cites this excellent NBER piece by people much smarter than me. Long story short, there used to […]
Import Prices Flat, Export Prices Decline 0.5%
The strong dollar dampers the tariff impact on import prices except energy. Export prices decline led by agriculture. BLS Highlights BLS Charts and Comments on Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2018 Prices for U.S. imports recorded no change in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after edging down 0.1 percent in June. […]
5 Utilities Funds To Counter Turkey’s Currency Crisis
Continued tensions over a significant decline in Turkey’s lira against the U.S. dollar continued to weigh on investor sentiment on Aug 13. Lira ended near its record low levels on the day, following concerns over the health of Turkey’s financial system. Additionally, U.S. sanctions against top Turkish government officials and doubling of metal tariffs against […]
Turkey Signaling An Emerging Market Slowdown?
Turkey Signals Weakness In Emerging Markets Turkey and the markets are revisiting 2014 since global synchronized economic growth has peaked and emerging markets are weakening. The stress in Turkey is only one example of the weakness. If Turkey was the only catalyst of strife in emerging economies’ currency and equity markets, you would easily be […]
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Yen Strength Pulls Back, But Door Remains Open
USD/JPY testing near-term resistance – threat remains for larger correction sub-111.37. The Japanese Yen has been paring gains against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/JPY testing initial resistance today in early US trade. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup […]
Einhorn Sells Most Of Apple Stake Before Q3 Rally
There was one line that stood out in David Einhorn’s Q2 letter to investors: “our results have been far worse than we could have imagined, and it’s been a bull market to boot”. And looking at the fund’s just released 13F, we may have an idea why. In the second quarter, Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, which saw […]
