Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Gold Sector – An Obscure Indicator Provides A Signal
The Goldminbi In recent weeks gold apparently decided it would be a good time to masquerade as an emerging market currency and it started mirroring the Chinese yuan of all things. Since the latter is non-convertible this almost feels like an insult of sorts. As an aside to this, bitcoin seems to be frantically searching […]
Great Graphic: Possible Head And Shoulders Top In Euro
The euro appears to have carved out head and shoulder top. As this Great Graphic depicts, the euro was sold through the neckline at the end of last week and is 1% below it today. It is not unusual for the neckline to be retested. It is found near $1.15.It also dovetails with our near-term caution given that […]
Sector Performance Breakdown Since The 1/26 Peak
The waiting game for new highs in the S&P 500 continues. Even though the S&P hasn’t moved much at the index level since January 26th, many of its components have seen big moves. The table below summarizes the average performance of individual S&P 500 components grouped according to sector since the 1/26 closing high. Leading […]
One Bank’s “Emerging Market Crisis Indicator” Is About To Be Triggered
While the market is (finally) paying attention to the accelerating Turkish collapse and specifically the risk of contagion to Europe, Asia, and ultimately, US capital markets, the truth is that this crisis has been a long time in the making. In fact, the first break in the “strong Emerging Market” narrative emerged in late April […]
Turkish Crisis Causes A Modest Decline In U.S. Stocks
Stocks Fall As Expected The stock market fell as expected. Personally, I had been bearish on stocks in the near term because they were overbought according to the CNN Fear and Greed index. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% and the Nasdaq fell 0.67%. The VIX increased 16.77% to 13.16. If I was a bull, I […]
Weekly Technical Perspective OnThe US Dollar (DXY)
Updated weekly technicals for US Dollar (DXY) – Breakout testing first major resistance hurdle. In this series, we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The US Dollar Index is up more than 9.3% off the yearly lows with the advance now approaching initial topside objectives. Here […]
The Smoke Thickens In China
A major part of any yield curve is inflation expectations. Nominal growth, particularly toward the longer end of curves, sets the agenda for trading. But further out there are several confluences that may cause distortions. For Economists, these are conundrums. There are times, however, when curve dynamics remain pretty simple. These are not usually the […]
EURUSD Analysis – Monday, August 13
Pressure from the dollar on the euro continues – with EURUSD falling to a yearly low of 1.1500 at the end of last week. At the moment, the pair is trading at 1.1392. According to the chart, it appears as though an inverse head and shoulders is forming on the daily timeframe (D1): The image […]
How Trump’s War On Regulation Is Trickle-Down Economics
When Trump’s not blaming foreigners for everything that ails America, he’s blaming regulations. Last week he even blamed regulations for the wildfires now ravaging California. They’re “made so much worse”, he tweeted“, by the bad environmental laws which aren’t allowing massive amount[s] of readily available water to be properly utilized.” I have news for Trump. California’s […]
Riding With Elliott Management After It Labels Nielsen As “Undervalued”
Nielsen NV (NLSN) crashed to new all-time lows at the same time Facebook (FB) ran into its own historic post-earnings buzzsaw. At the time, I noted NLSN’s bad news about the business of monetizing user data was seemingly overshadowed by Facebook’s woes. NLSN’s operational difficulties seemed to warn investors to brace for more weakness ahead. With […]
