Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Forex Critical: Mexican Peso Weakens As Traders Bail On Emerging Market Risks
In my post reviewing the strength in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), I neglected to note a related weakening in the Mexican peso. On Friday, USD/MXN rallied into its 200-day moving average (DMA) and faded. Per my plan, I faded USD/MXN at the 200DMA. Much to my surprise, USD/MXN readily backed off 200DMA resistance. I decided to take […]
USD/CAD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, August 12
USD/CAD stays below a falling trend line on the daily chart and remains in the downtrend from 1.3385. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the bounce from 1.2961 could be treated as consolidation for the downtrend and another fall towards 1.2850 could be expected after the consolidation. Only a clear break above the […]
Russia Finance Minister: We May Abandon Dollar In Oil Trade As It Is Becoming “Too Risky”
One month ago, the bond market and political pundits did a double take when according to the latest Treasury International Capital report, Russia had liquidated virtually all of its US Treasury holdings, selling off the bulk of its US government bonds in just two months, March and April. And with the US threatening to impose a new […]
Lira Collapses Anew As Erdogan Digs In, Tempts Fate
Over the weekend, Recep Tayyip Erdogan dug in his heels amid Turkey’s worsening currency crisis. Calls for draconian rate hikes and/or an admission from Ankara that an IMF program might be necessary were not only ignored, but specifically ruled out by the Turkish leader, who quite literally claimed he would rather die than succumb to […]
Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus – Sunday, August 12
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to […]
Chart: Global Equities Death Cross Breadth
Given the swiftly changing picture in global markets, this is a key chart to keep on your radar. In fact, I like this chart so much that it actually featured in my top 10 charts to watch for 2018 back at the start of January. What it shows is the proportion of the 70 countries we monitor […]
Washout: Big And Small Specs Barely Net Positive On Gold As Shorts Pile On
Gold Sentiment is in the Washout Phase The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports come out on Friday. They reflect futures positioning as of the prior Tuesday. Bearish sentiment is now extreme. Speculators are the least-long in gold futures that I can remember. Here is the full chart from CotPriceCharts. Gold Spec Washout Washout […]
AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 13-17 – Lost Uptrend Support, Jobs In Focus
The Australian dollar fell sharply on a mix of a dovish RBA report and a Turkish crisis that became global. What’s next? Australia’s jobs report is in the limelight. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged as expected but hit the […]
EUR/USD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, August 12
EUR/USD broke below 1.1508 support and extended its downside movement from 1.2555 to as low as 1.1388. A further decline is still possible and the next target would be at the 1.1200 area. Resistance levels are at 1.1550 and 1.1851, only break above these levels could signal completion of the downtrend.
Beyond The Border Breakdown
It was only a few trading days ago that most U.S. equity indexes were at the highest levels in the history of Earth. They are cheerfully and blissfully overvalued, far more than all prior bubbles, and no meaningful breakdown has occurred in over 30 months. Even so, the markets outside the U.S. have been ripping at the seams, and I wanted […]
