Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
A Middle-Class Squeeze Recipe: Flat Real Wage Growth With Prices Poised To Move Higher
We’ve been witnessing inflationary pressures in the monthly economic data over the last several months. Some of this has been higher raw materials due in part to trade tariffs and other input costs, such as climbing freight costs, as well as the impact of increased minimum wages in certain states. Habit Restaurant (HABT) noticeably called out […]
The Run Ends At The Highs
It always fascinates me how technical analysis is, more often than not, confirmed by some event. As I noted in last week’s missive: “Currently, the ‘bulls’ remain clearly in charge of the market…for now. While it seems as if much of the ‘tariff talk’ has been priced into stocks, what likely hasn’t, as of yet, is the […]
USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 13-17 – C$ Succumbs To Global Forces, NAFTA Balances The Picture
Dollar/CAD moved back up, mostly a result of the risk-off atmosphere and also due to a mixed Canadian jobs report. The upcoming week features Canadian inflation and other events. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. A local crisis in Turkey became global after the European Central Bank expressed concern about banks’ […]
The Balance: On Private Activity Bonds
For about two months, I wondered when I would write this. Now I know… I’m writing it now. To all my readers, I am letting you know that Aleph Blog is not ending, but it is changing. I accepted a writing assignment with The Balance. I am going to write 4-5 articles for them per month, […]
Weekly Market Outlook – The Bears Take A (Flawed) Shot At A Selloff
Stocks were due for a breather. Last week they finally got it. Of course, in this unusual environment that dishes out extremes (and often unfettered) rallies and pullbacks, last week’s weakness also poses the distinct possibility that a much bigger correction is now underway. The market did, after all, bump into a well-established ceiling. […]
Is Korea Equity Market Weakness A Precursor To Weakness In U.S. Markets?
About a year ago I provided an update on the Korea Stock Exchange Index (KOSPI) and the fact it can serve as a leading indicator to U.S. equity market performance. As noted in that earlier post, I referenced noted economist, Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI, who believes the KOSPI index is a leading indicator of the global economy […]
Dollar Surges, But Recent Gains Seem Exaggerated
The US dollar surged at the end of the week, helped by a hawkish statement by a perceived dove at the Federal Reserve and dramatic drop in the Turkish lira, which spurred a broader rout in emerging markets and risk assets in general. We remain bullish the dollar, based primarily on the US policy mix and […]
Best Sector This Earnings Season — Consumer Staples?
As noted in our prior post, the average stock that has reported earnings this season has gained 0.52% on its earnings reaction day. Below we break down the average earnings reaction day change by sector this season. As shown, Consumer Staples stocks that have reported have averaged a huge gain of 2.09% on their earnings reaction […]
