Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
A Little-Known Indicator Sees VIX Soaring To 40
When Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Michael Wilson released his 2018 equity outlook earlier this year, one particular observation struck us: a curious correlation between volatility and the shape of the yield curve we had not seen anywhere previously. In his discussion in late November 2017, Wilson explains why he expected bigger volatility in the coming year, […]
British Pound Rally Running Out Of Catalysts
The outlook for the pound, while still bullish, is looking less optimistic today. More specifically, factors including the ongoing slowdown in regional growth, lower expectations for a May rate hike, and significant speculator interest in the currency are hampering the rally. Following Brexit, the trade-weighted value of pound sterling (a measure of GBP relative to […]
From Fake Boom To Real Bust
More is revealed with each passing day. You can count on it. But what exactly the ‘more is of’ requires careful discrimination. Is the ‘more’ merely more noise? Or is it something of actual substance? Today we endeavor to pass judgement, on your behalf. For example, here in the land of fruits and nuts, things […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update – Friday, April 20
This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 148.9, up 1.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.71%, up from 2.70% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 3.2, down from the previous week. “Up […]
Canada’s Future Is Not In Pipelines
We must resist short-term focus and pressure to borrow more debt and waste more cash developing antiquated energy sources, and instead double down on developing longer-term prosperity and health with our vast sustainable resources. See Forget Trans Mountain, here’s the sustainable way forward for Canada’s energy sector: As of 2015, two-thirds of Canada’s power generation was […]
Bitcoin Breakout?
As you know, I don’t trade cryptos, but I find the charts of the big ones fascinating. Having risen about 30% since its last recent low, Bitcoin is at a bit of a “moment of truth”, since it is up against a key trendline, anchored to its nearly $20,000 high.
Inflation Or Employment
Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009 Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures Given the official policy response to the Great Financial Recession – a mixture of central bank […]
Stocks, Yields Tumble After Draghi Admits “Growth May Have Peaked”; ECB To Delay QE Unwind
As we have showed repeatedly over the past month, the European economic imploding, and nowhere is this more obvious than the Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index why will soon hit its post financial crisis lows. It appears that after weeks of dithering, someone at the ECB also figured out how to pull up this chart […]
EUR/USD Elliott Wave View: Still Trading Sideways
Short-term EUR/USD Elliott Wave view suggests that the pair remains in a sideways triangle range between 1.2554 and 1.2153 levels as mentioned in the previous post here. Until we break out of the range, we look for the sideways price action to continue. Triangle doesn’t have any particular trend, but it is generally a continuation pattern, […]
US Dollar Shows Strength Ahead Of ECB, BoJ Rate Decisions
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB), BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) HIGHLIGHT NEXT WEEK’S CALENDAR It’s been an interesting week across global markets, as earlier-week breakouts in both the British Pound and US equities were unable to hold, and we’ve already seen reversals to varying degrees in each of those markets. Last night’s Japanese inflation came-in at 1.1%, cooling from the […]
