Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Surged In February 2018
Of the five regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion. Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing The important Richmond Fed subcategories improved, The internals are better than last month,.Please note: Starting with the February 2018 data release, we will be reporting additional variables. Historical data files have been changed accordingly. Market expectations […]
U.S. Economy An Emerging Market?
Cycles Not In Tune The developed markets are likely a couple years away from the end of their business cycle, while emerging markets are just recovering from their recession. India and Brazil had weak economies in 2017. They’re looking to see acceleration in 2018. The countries which export commodities are probably going to have a […]
What Are Typical S&P 500 P/E Multiples Under More Normal Interest Rate Environments?
The U.S. stock market has been skittish lately, largely on fears of higher interest rates. As new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell takes over for Janet Yellen, and Congress passes multiple pieces of legislation that will swell the budget deficit, investors are getting more nervous about higher rates. What is amazing about this dialogue is that […]
Recent Stock Purchase II February 2018
Looks like I decided to make another buy in February as quite a number of stocks still remain severely beaten down even though the general market is on an uptrend. By now you all know the sectors and specific stocks that many of us have been buying as of late as interest rate hike fears […]
Bond Vigilantes Are Out There – Here’s What You Need To Know
Two weeks ago, when the January Jobs Report showed wage gains up 2.9% from a year ago, triggering inflation fears, the bond market freaked out and stocks started tanking. That’s behind us now. Or is it? Sure, stocks have recovered and the 10-Year Treasury yield is lower, but inflation fears are still out there – […]
Fitbit Inc. Stock Tumbles After Earnings, Guidance Disappoints
Fitbit Inc. (NYSE: FIT) stock plunged to a new all-time low on Tuesday following the disappointing guidance included with the company’s Q4 2017 earnings report. The wearables maker continues to have difficulties turning a profit, and promotional activity took a bite out of its device average selling price. Analysts generally remain on the sidelines with […]
February Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview
Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and […]
Recapping Jerome Powell’s Congress Testimony And Related Market Moves
(Audio length 00:14:13) Chris Temple and I share our thoughts on the recent Jerome Powell testimony in front of Congress. The only real standout in his statement was that there could be 4 rate hikes this year. We address the correlated moves in US equity markets, bonds, the US Dollar and precious metals.
Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index December 2017 Now At 6.3 % Year-Over-Year Growth
The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) year-over-year rate of home price growth slowed from 6.4 % to 6.3 %. The index authors stated “The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility.” Analyst Opinion of Case-Shiller HPI Many […]
Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%
The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%. Aircraft had been leading durable goods orders and due to extremely long lead times, that’s not a sign of strength. But it was not just aircraft orders that took a hit in the Census Bureau Durable Goods Advance […]
