Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Stocks Storm To Best Start Since 1987 Amid Dollar-Devastation
After that week, we suspect more than a few FX traders feel the same way… Let’s get a little context before we start – this is the most overbought (by a bloody mile) that US equities have ever been… And…98% of global equity markets trading above 50 & 200 day moving averages. This is the […]
Nowcast Ends With 3.9% 4th-Quarter GDP Forecast, 1st Quarter At 3.1%
Nowcast does its final forecast on the day GDP comes out. It concludes it’s 4th-quarter forecast at 3.9%. The final Nowcast estimate for 4th quarter GDP is an anticlimactic 3.9% today vs. the actual BEA estimate of 2.6%. The forecast for the first quarter is 3.1%. Nowcast First-Quarter GDP Estimate Note that today’s GDP report did not […]
Bitcoin Passes The Torch To Altcoins
Bitcoin… For the vast majority of people, this original coin has long been synonymous with cryptocurrency. Indeed, bitcoin was basically the only game in town until recently. As you can see from the chart below, bitcoin accounted for roughly 85% of the crypto market one year ago. Today, bitcoin makes up only 34% of the […]
GSAM: No Recession In Sight, Stay Bullish
On Thursday, I had the pleasure of returning to the New York Stock Exchange for the second time in a week. Last Tuesday was for opening bell and this time it was closing bell with the Aussies ringing the bell for Australia Day. Thanks to Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) for the invite and their […]
Emerging Markets: What Changed – Friday, Jan. 26
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil (+7.0%), Turkey (+5.3%), and Colombia (+5.1%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-1.3%), Poland (-0.2%), and Taiwan (-0.2%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 3.0% this week while MSCI DM rose 1.4%. In the […]
The U.S. Economy Keeps Growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That is better than the 2.2% we’ve seen on average since the Great Recession ended in 2009, though below the historical average growth rate for the U.S. economy of 3.1%. Real GDP growth at an annual […]
Davidson On The Dollar And Equities
“Davidson” submits: The US$(US Dollar) has been much in the news. How it is priced in the context of global currencies impacts investors in every country as it impacts trade flows, commodity prices and relative prices of global assets and underlying returns. The current discussion of a weakening US$ as somehow being ‘bad for investing’ […]
Celgene: Headwinds For Otezla Could Weigh
Celgene (CELG) delivered Q4 revenue of $3.5 billion and non-GAAP eps of $2.00. Revenue was up 6% sequentially and 17% Y/Y. I had the following takeaways on the report: Is Otezla’s Growth Sustainable? Heading into the quarter Celenge appeared to be on the ropes and at risk of losing its image as a growth company. […]
Dollar Dive: Two Paths To Profit
Last week we profiled the recent declines in the value of the dollar…and why we believe this is a trend that will continue. That was 14 days ago, and already the USD Index is down another 4.2%—we’ll say it again: These declines will beget more declines; The world’s reserve currency has a lot further to […]
This Explains A Lot (And It’s Still Not Enough)
The reason nothing ever goes in a straight line is that first everything is always changing. How and why are questions we often don’t have good answers for. And not only that, how we respond to changes expected and unexpected is really nothing more than the messiness of the scientific process, trial and error carried […]
