Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
The Global Stock Markets Are Highly Correlated
The short-term downtrend shifted into high gear selling today as confirmed by these Bullish Percents. The Global Stock Index has led the way down for the large cap US stocks, and now it has broken decisively below the 200-day. The global stock markets are highly correlated, so if you see weakness in the global index, […]
Inverse ETFs Surge As Trade War Fears Escalate
Though strong earnings, tax reform and encouraging economic fundamentals are giving some boost to the stocks, trade war fears are playing foul on the stock market. The spat between the United States and its major allies, especially China and the European Union (EU), has turned bitter in recent weeks with tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs. In […]
Understanding The CFNAI Components – Monday, June 25
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: Production and Income Employment, Unemployment, and Hours Personal Consumption and Housing Sales, Orders, and Inventories The complete list is available here in PDF format. In this morning’s Chicago Fed update, we learned that […]
USD/CAD Holds Narrow Range Ahead Of Bank Of Canada (BoC) Comments
CANADIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS USD/CAD holds a narrow range as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz is slated to speak at the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may sway the near-term outlook for the dollar-loonie exchange rate as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. USD/CAD HOLDS NARROW […]
Financial Economy Is Different Than The Real Economy
First up – sorry for the lack of posts recently. I have some excuses, but they aren’t good ones, so I will spare you the details. Even though lately I haven’t been following the markets as much as I would like, I can’t help but chirp in regarding market action. Recently, it has become popular […]
Global Container Throughput Index
Global trade is one of my favorite variables to track in gauging the state of the global economic cycle. It both reflects changes on the demand side, as well as flow-on effects on the supply side. So, of course, the RWI/ISL Global Container Throughput Index is something I pay due attention to, particularly as it is based […]
Harley To Shift Some Production Overseas: Harley And GE In Trump Crossfire
Trump seeks to bring jobs to the US via tariffs. It’s backfiring. In yet another example of the silliness of Trump’s trade policy, Harley-Davidson to Shift Production Overseas to Offset EU Tariffs. Harley-Davidson Inc. plans to shift production overseas to avoid European Union tariffs on its iconic motorcycles, the latest manufacturer to reconfigure operations amid a […]
Designated Roth Account (Roth 401k) Distributions
In a previous post, we discussed the general information surrounding Designated Roth Accounts (also known as a Roth 401k) – eligibility, tax treatment, and contributions. In this post, we’ll go over the nuances involved in distributions from a Designated Roth Account under a 401k. Distributions are a little different from most other retirement plans, as you’ll see… Required Minimum […]
Margin Debt And The Market – Monday, June 25
Note: The NYSE has suspended their NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, including historical data going […]
Will Soybean Prices Recover When China Starts Buying American In The Autumn?
Typically, Chinese purchases of American soybeans picks up in the autumn, due to timing of harvests. If this is an important factor in the recovery of US soybean prices, one would expect futures for November delivery of soybeans would reflect that fact. As of today, they don’t. Figure 1: Soybean futures for November delivery, accessed as […]
