Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
May 2018 Headline New Home Sales Improve
Written by John Lounsbury and Steven Hansen The headlines say new home sales improved. Our analysis shows improvement. Sales prices were little changed. Analyst Opinion of New Home Sales This month the backward revisions were downward. Because of weather and other factors, the rolling averages are the way to view this series – and the rolling averages remain […]
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
I realize it’s getting late to discuss the June 12–13 FOMC meeting, but I think the Fed’s biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference, I spent some time last week reviewing old speeches, transcripts and other materials produced […]
USD/JPY Outlook Mired By Lower Highs & Lows, Bearish RSI Signal
JAPANESE YEN TALKING POINTS USD/JPY continues to give back the advance from earlier this month as the European Union (EU) warns that the region ‘would have no choice but to react’ if the U.S. imposes new tariffs on European cars, and recent price action raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate […]
Capital Hell Unfolding For Yield-reaching Investors (Again)
As the safest deposit and bond yields fell since the 2008 recession, people who could not afford/did not want capital losses migrated–willfully blind/desperate/greedily–into yield-reaching harm’s way. One popular area has been ‘syndicated mortgages’ where borrowers find private lenders to loan money on properties instead of going to a bank. Trouble is that most often these […]
E The Broad Markets Are Selling Off Sharply Today
The broad markets are selling off sharply today, and this is putting additional pressure on everything else. Major markets are trading well-below their lower Bollinger Bands, and this feels like panic selling. This type of prices action typically leads to (at least) a short-term low. -VIX- The VIX is up 39%. -SPY- Prices gapped […]
E The Full Employment German Economy Continues To Be The Eurozone’s Economic Engine
The Full Employment German Economy Continues To Be The Euro Zone’s Economic Engine. But Trade Worries Weigh Heavily On The Government And The Firms “With its specialization in capital goods, Germany has benefitted from the broad-based global upswing. In the context of high capacity utilization and easy credit, this has promoted strong machinery and equipment […]
New Home Sales Surge, Prices Down, Revisions Negative
New home sales beat economists expectations. But the surge was entirely in the South. New home sales are an interesting mix this month. Sales are up 17.9% in the South, flat in the Midwest, down 8.7% in the West, and down 10% in the Northeast. Mortgage News Daily reports New Home Sales Up Sharply; Prices Slump. […]
33 Firms Going Ex-Dividend Next Week, Including Cardinal Health, Humana And Ventas
There are several well known large cap stocks going ex-dividend next week including the following four Top 100 Dividend Stocks: Cardinal Health, Realty Income, State Street and Ventas. Ex-dividend dates are important to dividend investors because one must own a stock on its ex-dividend date in order to be eligible to receive its next dividend. Any stock ranked by […]
VIX ‘Curve’ Inverts As Traders Carry Biggest Short Vol Position Since Feb Crisis
VIX is spiking this morning, back above 16 for the first time since May… and inverting the term structure… For the first time since April… This surge is coming right after Large Specs have rebuilt the largest net short vol position since the Feb XIV collapse. Is the next short-vol-squeeze coming?
JPMorgan: Buybacks Were Behind The Outperformance Of US Equities During Q2
Ok, so part and parcel of the bull thesis for U.S. equities going forward is the assumption that the buyback tailwind (created in part by the tax cuts) will act as real-life plunge protection come hell or high tariffs. That contention was seemingly borne out in February when Goldman’s buyback desk had its most active two-week […]
