Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
S&P Slumps Into Red As Options Skew Hits Record Low
Traders have never paid more to place levered long bets relative to downside protection in US equity markets… perhaps that was the final straw on the endless-bull-market-camel’s back… After all that excitement at the open – Dow 26k and nothing can stop me now… Things have gone a lighter shade of pale red with all but […]
‘Tis Only A Flesh Wound: BTC On Edge Of 40% Drawdown
Bitcoin is known for its volatility, but even by the cryptocurrency’s own high standards, the recent decline of almost 40% off all-time highs is quite large. As shown in the chart below, there have been four other drawdowns which bottomed out at larger declines off ATHs than the current one: the first half of 2011, […]
Stocks Maintain Euphoria
Fed Fund Futures’ Reaction To CPI The Fed fund futures for the March meeting show the chance of at least one rate hike went up from 68% before the data released to 73.7% after the data was released. Even though this is a small change, getting above the 70% threshold is pivotal because the Fed […]
EUR/USD: Is 1.25 The New 1.20 For ECB?
EUR/USD enjoyed the weakness of the US dollar and surged to 1.23, where it took a break. What’s next? What levels are tolerable for the ECB? Here is the view Nordea: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and notes that the pair has broken above its 2017 high and […]
Will The Coming Big Oil Price Drop Cause The Next Stock Market Crash?
The oil market price is setting up for one heck of a fall. Now, could this large oil correction cause the next stock market crash? Time will tell. However, the indicators in the oil market are showing the largest net commercial short positions in history. The current net commercial short positions in the oil market […]
Crypto Carnage Continues – Ripple Now Down 40% Year-To-Date
Overnight reports from South Korea started it; European regulator comments extended it this morning, and Shanghai “scrutiny” headlines just sparked another slam as cryptocurrencies are getting hammered today… We detailed the anxiety over a more widespread crackdown on crypto-trading overnight, and since the US came back from its MLK-Day vacation, things have got worse. It started […]
So The Eurozone Is Finally Recovering? Think Again
Introduction The financial press is now heralding the economic recovery of the Eurozone. For example, Derek Halpenny comments as follows: In the second quarter of 2017, annual real growth in gross domestic product rose above 2 per cent for the first time since 2011. The Eurozone unemployment rate is also falling more sharply than expected. […]
8 Leveraged ETFs That Soared At Least 20% To Start 2018
The stock market across the globe continues to show strong complacency this year amid record levels of corporate debt and a flattening yield curve. The MSCI World Index registered its best start to a year in eight years while the Wall Street logged in its best start in more than a decade. The combination of […]
As Traders Rush To Buy CALLs, Price Of PUTs Plunge Two Std. Deviations
Bets that the S&P 500 will rise still further have gotten so intense that one has to pay a huge premium for CALL options. Bloomberg reports Traders Pay Through the Nose to Bet the S&P 500 Will Snap Higher. As U.S. stocks trade at all-time highs, the price tag on bearish options has dropped to a […]
Five Decades Of Middle-Class Wages: December 2017 Update
We’ve updated this series to include last week’s release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the December monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $37,687, down 12.7% from 44 years ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been collecting data on this workforce cohort since 1964. The […]
