Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Great Time To Expand Business
Since the 2016 elections NFIB surveys of Small Business Optimism have soared, generating the most dramatic jump in expectations on record. With Corporate Tax cut stimulus effects still ahead and restrained capital spending data, it appears there is room for growing euphoria in 2018. Advisor Perspectives does a great job presenting financial data, but a look inside this […]
Traders Are Betting The Fed Is Wrong
Federal Reserve officials expect to raise interest rates three times in 2018. Higher rates are a response to faster economic growth, which the Fed expects in the coming year. But, at least for now, traders don’t agree with the Fed. In the futures markets, traders are betting with real money that interest rates are going to decline. […]
5 ETFs To Bet On 2018 Dogs Of The Dow
Although the ‘Dogs of the Dow’ strategy has a history of outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the long term, it lagged in 2017, returning just 19% compared with 25% gains for the blue-chip index. Before 2017, the Dogs had generated outsized returns in six of the seven previous years, missing only in 2012. […]
It’s The Booming Economy Driving Bond Prices Down, Not Chinese Selling
There are two things which warrant attention that are empirically wrong with the thesis that Chinese selling of US Treasuries will drive down prices. First, foreigners were net sellers of Treasuries when prices were rising. Second, Chinese selling would be in 2- or 3-year bonds, not at the long end where the selloff in Treasuries […]
Strong Cash And Massive EIA Draw Tomorrow Fail To Rally Natural Gas
Natural gas prices pulled back modestly today, settling down half a percent on a day where they started trading significantly up following a short-covering rally yesterday afternoon. Bulls looked to strong cash prices today to support futures today, with Henry Hub cash averaging $3.11 today, but futures seem to shrug that off, as cash initially […]
No, No, This Time They Mean It
I thought he might wait a while longer given how things have played out. I guess not. Bill Gross, the former “bond king” at PIMCO, was back to advertising his position that the great bond bull market of the past quarter century is finished. In a tweet from his new employer Janus (h/t ZeroHedge) it seems […]
What Is Bitcoin Other Than A $15,000 Beanie Baby?
Bitcoin is scarce. Right? That was the driving force behind another collectible that I recall. TNABC Refuses Bitcoin Let’s compare the scarcity of Bitcoins to the scarcity of Beanie Babies. First, please note that it costs so much and takes so long to process bitcoin transactions, that The North American Bitcoin Conference Stops Accepting Bitcoin for payment. […]
Savings Rates Not Increasing With Fed Funds Rate
Zero Indicators In A Recession With the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecasting 2.7% GDP growth in Q4 and the blue chip signaling a similar result, it’s not surprising to see the chart below show that 0% of indicators are in a recession. The net percentage of indicators which are accelerating has improved after a modest […]
With Price Surge, Analysts Hope For Higher Oil Prices In 2018
One of the hallmarks of the past few years has been relatively low energy prices. The US benefits from massive production of oil and gas due to fracking technology and new sources of energy. However, that may be coming to an end where oil is concerned. Analysts note that prices have surged recently. Today, we […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – This Forgotten Babylon
Stocks were slumping and the precious metals caught a bid as an exclusive story at Bloomberg said that China is considering curtailing or even halting its purchases of US Treasuries. Bloomberg’s own spokesmodels were snickering the mere possibility of that aside, as just a rumour, and unthinkable to boot. And the markets seemed to join […]
