Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Stocks, Bonds And Real Estate: The High Probability Of A Wealth Effect Reversal
According to Michael Leibowitz of 720 Global, the cumulative amount of new debt issued by the U.S government surpassed the cumulative amount of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in each year since the financial crisis of 2008. In other words, GDP economic growth would have been negative in every year following the crisis were […]
The Fed Has Forgotten The Lessons Of 2008
A few days ago, Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, told an attendees at an event at Howard University that Wall Street is “forgetting the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis“: “The shareholders got bailed out. The boards of directors got bailed out. Management got bailed out. So from their perspective, there was no […]
S&P 500 Index: Intraday Support & Resistance Levels
The following 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) shows intraday support and resistance levels at 2650 and 2700, respectively. The momentum and relative volatility index technical indicators have plunged on today’s action, so far (as at 1:15 pm ET, Thursday April 19), and price has fallen back into the lower 1/4 of the uptrending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel…all of which are suggesting that the latest […]
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Slight Improvement In April
The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index. The latest Manufacturing Index […]
Amazon Prime Subscribers Hits 100 Million: $10 Billion In Annual Prime Revenue
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos says 100 million people pay for Amazon Prime. This is the first time Bezos disclosed the number. The WSJ reports Amazon Prime Has More Than 100 Million Members. Amazon, which has never disclosed the number of Prime members before, revealed the figure in Chief Executive Jeff Bezos’s closely followed annual letter to […]
An Alert On Deutsche Bank? ECB Worried…
This is a first: The European Central Bank (ECB) has asked Deutsche Bank to calculate the impact of selling one of its trading positions as it is considering withdrawing from the investment bank. It wants to know if Germany’s largest bank can come out of this activity without guarantees from the State or German taxpayers’ […]
Financials Have A Weak Earnings Season Despite Headline Beats
FAANG + BAT Considered The Most Crowded Trade The chart below shows the fund manager survey which asks what the most crowded trade was in April. As you can see, long FAANG and BAT was said to be the most crowded although it lost ground, falling to 33%. With NFLX’s rally on Tuesday after its subscriber beat, […]
Expect More Headwinds For The US Stock Market
2018 hasn’t been a good year for the US stock market and we expect more volatility going forward. We might very well see new lows in the coming months. Judging from the general media coverage the reason for stock market volatility primarily has to be found on Pennsylvania Avenue 1600 – i.e. in the White […]
A Unified Theory Of Everything: From The Fed, To Volatility, To LIBOR To BTFD
Over the past, oh, I don’t know, four weeks or so, we’ve talked a lot about what “caused” February’s rout (inflation scare coupled with the realization of the VIX ETP rebalance risk, subsequent VIX spike and forced de-risking by the systematic crowd) and what factors have recently conspired to constrain the market’s ability to fully […]
Philip Morris Stock Loses 5% Despite Q1 Earnings Beat
After missing earnings estimates five straight times, Philip Morris International Inc. (PM – Free Report) delivered a beat in first-quarter 2018. Moreover, top and bottom lines grew year over year and management also raised its bottom-line view for 2018, courtesy of the tax reforms. However, these factors were not enough to placate investors, who were let down by the […]
