Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Growth In Non-Farm Payrolls Peaks Mid-Cycle
After the latest jobs report had come out, US President Donald Trump responded on Twitter by touting the decline in unemployment amongst African Americans. The African American unemployment rate fell to 6.8%, the lowest rate in 45 years. I am so happy about this News! And, in the Washington Post (of all places), headline states, […]
Multiple Jobholders: Two Decades Of Trends As Of December
What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households. At present, multiple jobholders account for just 4.9 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for […]
Euro Rally Takes A Breather
The Euro ended its recent rally with a decline against the US Dollar after investor profit-taking. Overall, however, market players appear to be optimistic about the Euro’s outlook. Many FX players saw today’s decline as a good opportunity for Euro buying. One currency strategist in London concurs, saying that there is a significant amount of […]
Quantum Change In Gold Demand Continues
Short-term interest rates have been relentlessly rising since the second half of 2015. For example, 3-month LIBOR was 0.28% in July of that year. It is now 1.7%. This is just a result of the Fed centrally planning our economy, managing our interest rate for us. Long-term rates have not moved. The 10-year Treasury yield […]
Investors Abandon Hedges: Who Needs Em? The Stock Market Only Goes Up
With the stock market on a record tear, investors increasingly view hedges as a money-losing operation. With volatility at consistently low levels, more investors are revising their strategies on risk. Apparently these is no downside risk anymore as Investors Abandon Hedges. After a long stretch of stock market tranquility, more investors are concluding that paying for […]
E Recent Data Puts The Bank Of Canada In The Spotlight
The release of the December employment report last Friday and today’s investment survey for 2018 have upped the odds that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will raise rates at its January 17th meeting. Canada created 79,000 jobs in December and this brought the national unemployment rate down to 5.7%. The Bank of Canada’s survey of […]
Crude Oil Prices Stall At 2.5-Year Highs, Gold Eyes Fed-Speak
Talking Points: Crude oil prices stall at 2.5-year highs before API, EIA releases Gold prices may pull back on upbeat remarks from Fed officials What is driving long-term crude oil price trends? Find out here Benchmark commodity prices have made little progress since setting prominent highs mid last week. Crude oil prices will look to the weekly API inventories report as well as […]
Leveraged Loans Decline For The First Time In 16 Months
Even though the headline jobs report missed, there were enclaves of strength. As you can see in the bottom chart, the labor force participation rate among men aged 25-54 increased to 89% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is about a 1% improvement from the bottom which was hit in 2013, 2014, and 2015. The […]
Interest Rates Walking On Narrow Ledge
There is a huge shock in store for those who have been lulled to sleep by a stock market that has become accustomed to no volatility and only an upward direction. And that alarm bell can be found in the price action of Bitcoin, which recently tumbled over 40% in less than a week. For […]
