Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Twin Deficits Redux? CBO Predicts
From the recent CBO Budget and Economic Outlook , the projected current account and implied cyclically adjusted budget balance. Figure 1: Structural/cyclically adjusted Federal budget balance (dark blue), and current account balance (dark red), both as a share of GDP. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. CBO projection period shaded gray. Projection of structural budget balance estimated by […]
The Inflation-Related GBP/USD Collapse May Have Room To Run
The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that on its way down, the GBP/USD broke below several important clusters of technical support lines. And at current levels under $1.4200, there are very few support lines to the downside. It was triggered by weak inflation. The pair tumbled nearly 100 pips and took down a dense confluence of levels around $1.4270: […]
Russia Is Ready For Possible SWIFT Cutoff, Debt-Sale Ban
As we pointed out earlier, White House chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Tuesday afternoon that further sanctions against Russia were “under consideration” at the White House – denying reports that sanctions had been abandoned at President Trump’s behest. Over the weekend, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said another round of sanctions would be announced as soon as […]
Indian Indices Trade Marginally Higher; FMCG Sector Up 2%
Stock markets in India are presently trading marginally higher. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the FMCG sector and realty sector witnessing maximum buying interest. The BSE Sensex is trading up 60 points (up 0.2%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 15 points (up 0.1%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is […]
BTC/USD Forex Signal – Wednesday, April 18
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels were reached. Today’s BTC/USD Signals Risk 0.75% per trade. Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period only. Short Trades Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $8,250 or […]
AUDUSD Daily Analysis – Wednesday, April 18
AUDUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 0.7738 and 0.7809. As long as 0.7738 support holds, the uptrend from 0.7642 could be expected to continue and next target would be at 0.7850 area. On the downside, a breakdown below 0.7738 would indicate that the upside movement had completed at 0.7809 already, then the following […]
U.S. Recession Odds Tick Slightly Upward, Remain Very Low
The risk of a national recession beginning in the United States anytime in the next twelve months, or specifically between 13 April 2018 and 13 April 2019, has ticked up toward 0.6% from our previous reading of just above 0.5% a month ago. As expected, that uptick is primarily the result of the Federal Reserve’s most recent […]
Bitcoin Forecast – Wednesday, April 18
Bitcoin markets were very quiet on Tuesday as cryptocurrencies, in general, were flat. We are hanging about the same area that we have been in over the last several sessions. BTC/USD Bitcoin tried to rally initially during the trading session on Tuesday but gave back almost all the gains to keep a very flat tone […]
The Central Bank Crisis On The Immediate Horizon
While the majority keep bashing the Federal Reserve, other central banks seem to escape any criticism. The European Central Bank under Mario Draghi has engaged in what history will call the Great Monetary Experiment of the 21st Century – the daring experiment of negative interest rates. A look behind the scenes reveals that this experiment has […]
Gold Trend Line Break Expected On A Positive Momentum
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on Gold is rejecting POC zone, and soon we might see a trend line break (blue dotted line) that could be a sign of a trend continuation. 1335-40 is the POC zone, and the trend line break is expected if the price closes above 1348. The first target is 1354.47 and continuation […]
