Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Regression To The Trend: Will S&P 500 Prices Ever Revisit Their Mean?
Richard Russell, an exceptionally well-regarded Dow Theorist, explained that a stock market can do absolutely anything over short periods of time. Yet, over longer periods, the greatest certainty is “regression to the mean.” “Regression to the mean” refers to the inevitability of prices revisiting a long-term trend. For example, near the beginning of the Roaring ’20s, […]
International Markets Lead US To Start 2018
Below is a look at our asset class performance matrix highlighting the total return of various ETFs over three near-term time frames — over the last six months, over the last month, and year-to-date so far in 2018. Notably, the oil ETF (USO) is now up more than any asset class in our matrix over […]
Pershing Square Sells Entire Stake In Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)
Pershing Square closed its position in Nomad Foods Limited (NYSE:NOMD) during the third quarter. Nomad Foods is a British Virgin Islands-based packaged foods company that moved its listing from the London Stock Exchange to the New York Stock Exchange in January 2016. The company’s share price has significantly increased over the last 12 months. In its Q3 investor letter, Pershing Square discussed […]
Gold-Stock Upside Huge
The gold miners’ stocks have huge upside potential in 2018, likely the best among stock-market sectors. They really lagged gold last year, so a major mean-reversion catch-up rally is coming. The gold miners are universally ignored and deeply undervalued relative to the metal which drives their profits. And gold itself is likely to power dramatically […]
Natural Gas Is Rallying … But Don’t Buy It Yet
Just when we thought we escaped the blistering cold weather in North Carolina by heading back to Florida last weekend, the warmth didn’t last long. On Wednesday and Thursday, the temperature had fallen below 40 degrees for both days. This is a stark contrast to the 80-degree day we had for New Year’s when we […]
The Most Volatile Stocks On Earnings – Friday, Jan 5
The Q4 2017 earnings reporting period starts up next week, and as we do prior to every earnings season, in this post we provide lists of the stocks that have historically been the most volatile on their earnings reaction days. If you follow markets at all, you know that stocks see their biggest price moves […]
Bank Of America: “It Ain’t Over”
Last summer, BofA’s Michael Hartnett was predicting a grizzly death to the most surreal stock market rally in history, expecting a violent tumble some time in the late fall, early winter. That did not happen, as the market – no longer a discounting mechanism but merely a manifestation of how much money retail investors dump into ETFs […]
A Record Fall Crush & Strong Exports Counter A Record US Crop
Market Analysis This year’s record US soybean crop has found record domestic crush and solid overseas demand during the 1st quarter of the crop year. This year’s La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean helped delay soybean plant-ings in N. Brazil earlier this fall and prompted heat and dryness bouts across Argentina during its planting […]
Markets: Let The Paramedics Sort Them Out
So, Bitcoin is soaring and very few people understand how this will all end and whether these cryptocurrencies will even be viable economic variables. We’re in that early part of a mania when there is a very serious risk that the price of the asset is disconnected from its actual utility. I call this a […]
