Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Predicting Stock Returns Using Firm Characteristics
A few weeks ago, we did a deep dive into the factors versus characteristics debate. One of the reasons we’ve brought up this debate is due to the fact that “factor” loadings (from regressions) are arguably not as helpful as portfolio characteristics. In other words, knowing a portfolio P/E ratio is more informative for forecasting expected […]
Buyout Deal Activity Keeps Its Momentum In 2017
Written by Preqin Number of deals keeps track with recent years, while total value rises from 2016. In 2017, private equity-backed buyout deals remained on par with 2016’s deal activity, with 4,191 deals worth a total of 347bn. Preqin expects these figures to rise by about 5% as more information becomes available, putting the year broadly level with the […]
The S&P 500, Dow And Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs – Thursday, Jan. 4
This update is in response to a standing request for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. It includes the latest monthly close data. Here are two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price […]
China Pushing To Be The World Leader In AI
While the media is caught up in crpytocurrency mania, the true game changing technology that investors should be focused on is artificial intelligence. From self-driving cars to Dr. Robot, AI is going to change our lives in profound ways in the near future. Russian President Vladimir Putin says, “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russian, but […]
EUR/USD Maintains Above 1.2000 As USD Weakness Continues Into 2018
The U.S. Dollar’s down-trend just celebrated a birthday. It was just a year and a day ago that DXY set a fresh 14-year high at 103.82. As we came into last year, little looked to stand in the way of the Greenback’s bullish ascent, as the ‘Trump Trade’ aka the ‘reflation trade’ continued to drive investors into […]
WTI/RBOB Rise After Biggest Crude Draw Since August
WTI/RBOB were sinking into the DOE data, despite API’s solid crude draw data, after tagging $62/$1.81 overnight. Official data confirmed API’s with the seventh straight week of crude builds (biggest crude build since Aug) and gasoline draws but it was distillates’ massive build (most since Dec 2016) that stood out. A pull-back in prices might be seen if builds […]
‘What Goes Up’: Everything
On Wednesday in “The Bernie Madoff Market,” we described how 2017 was so unusual, the gains so predictable, the consistency so implausible, that if global equities were a fund, regulators would suspect it might be a ponzi scheme. That assessment was inspired by the following quote from SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne: Not only did global equity […]
Some In Congress Are Still Trying To Open Banking Service To Canabis Businesses
As California joins the list of states that have legalized recreational marijuana, limited access to banking services continues to be a problem for producers, retailers, and other businesses in this rapidly growing sector. Because marijuana businesses cannot, in most cases, open bank accounts, accept credit cards, or make electronic payments, the sector remains largely cash […]
December 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Again Marginally Worsens
Hurricanes continue to impact claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 239 K to 242 K (consensus 240,000), and the Department of Labor reported 250,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and […]
US Corporate Pensions’ Funded Status Improves
New analysis by Willis Towers Watson presents a case for the strengthening funding status of the largest US Corporate Pensions. According to the insurance and advisory company, the end of 2017 saw the funded status of these US firm’s pension to be highest it has been in recent memory. US corporate pensions have not seen these […]
