Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
More Weakness? How Much?
Some analysts called for the final low of the correction to have occurred on 4/02, at 2554. I have been reluctant to do this for two principal reasons: 1) The 40-wk. cycle low is still ahead of us — ideally due to bottom sometime in May, and 2) there is an unfilled valid count to […]
Weekly Economic & Political Timeline – April 15
This week will see a somewhat lighter news agenda than last week, with central bank input expected from Canada and Australia, as well as some crucial economic data from the U.S.A., China, and the U.K. Any further developments regarding Syria may also have an impact. The market will probably be most active on Tuesday. U.S. […]
Market Volatility Continues To Increase
The Dow Jones saw its latest correction bottom on March 23rd declining to -11.58% in the BEV chart below. Since then the Dow Jones has oscillated from just below -10% and up to the -8% BEV levels as bulls and bears alike wait to see what is coming their way. So what’s next for […]
Boof Review: Brodie And Harnack, The Trust Mandate
The Trust Mandate: The behavioural science behind how asset managers really win and keep clients by Herman Brodie and Klaus Harnack (Harriman House, 2018) is a short book (about 130 pages of text). It starts by looking at some seeming anomalies regarding which managers attract the most asset inflows—notably, not necessarily the best performers. A lot […]
How Much Is A Lottery Ticket Worth?
Ask most people how much a lottery ticket is worth and the most probable answers will be the price of the ticket, the value of the jackpot or simply: “Is it a winning ticket?” The value of a ticket for a forthcoming drawing is none of these. The reason for this is related to a […]
GBP/USD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, April 15
GBP/USD is facing 1.4345 resistance. A breakout of this level would indicate that the uptrend from 1.1946 (Oct 7, 2016 low) has resumed, then next target would be at 1.5000 area. Support levels are at 1.3950 and 1.3711, only a break below these levels could signal completion of the uptrend.
Why You Shouldn’t Trust The Gap On Monday
In Thursday’s commentary I suggested that the market would follow any big reaction to the XLF ETF and suggested the following course of action should a big move occur. “So how should you use this opportunity to have one day potentially tell us so much about the market, based on one simple ETF? Carefully – […]
CBO Budget Projections Worsen At Alarming Rate
The CBO projects trillion dollar deficits by 2020 and 2 trillion by 2028. Long History of Growing Debt The Bipartisan Policy Center reports Trillion Dollar Deficits Coming Soon. Here’s Why It Matters. When CBO published its mid-2017 update, the projections were far from rosy. The combination of the baby boomers phasing into retirement and ever rising […]
AUD/USD Forecast Apr. 16-20 – A Bit Overbought, Jobs In The Limelight
The Australian dollar advanced nicely as trade came back to fashion once again. The upcoming week features the RBA minutes, Australian jobs and the Chinese GDP. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australia needs flowing trade to flourish. After China and the US moved from trade wars to pleasantries, […]
Citi: “There Is A Massive Problem” With The Bond Market
Is the global economic recovery over? That is the question investors are grappling with just as Q1 earnings season – the best since 2011 with its 18% Y/Y expected EPS growth – enters its busiest week yet. Meanwhile, as discussed here extensively in recent weeks, over the past two months economic data from around the globe, but […]
