Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Hong Kong, China, And The Nightmare Of Forex Piles
Very early on in the turn, I mean very early, you could already tell there were substantial problems underneath. By the time CNY started lower, against all expectations, there had already been serious signs of trouble in China for months by then. In that initial seemingly minor drop in early 2014, the PBOC’s actions belied a stable […]
Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Clues To The Business Cycle – April 13
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through February, is now available. The first chart below shows four of the headline components of the overall series, which the BLS began tracking in December 2000. The time frame is quite limited compared to the main BLS data series in the monthly employment report, […]
S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 2% From Last Week, 1.5% YTD
The S&P 500 seemingly climbed back up this week, but closed 2% lower than last Friday. The index is down 1.5% YTD and is 7.5% below its record close. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.82%. Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. Today’s selling puts the […]
GBP: Heavyweight UK Data Will Steer Sterling Next Week
Talking Points: Trade weighted Sterling at post-Brexit high. Will UK real wages turn positive? 70% probability of 0.25% UK rate hike in May FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR GBP: NEUTRAL Sterling bulls have enjoyed a positive week with GBP making gains against most other currency pairs. Despite a lack of any hard data, EURGBP trades at levels last seen in […]
Cash Strength And Nuke Outages Rally Nat Gas
May natural gas prices continued their rally today, settling up just less than 2% following a slightly tighter than expected print yesterday and continued cash strength today. Yet again we saw the front of the strip lead the way higher, with spreads tightening gradually along it. Cash prices have continued to help drag up the […]
Friday The 13th Major Sector Winners & Losers: Energy & Financials May Hold The Key
With an input value of 1 day, the rate-of-change indicator shows which of the following 9 Major Sectors gained/lost the most in today’s action (2-month and 1-year daily charts below). In this regard and in particular, watch for any continued strength in XLE (Energy) and any continued weakness in XLF (Financials) next week and beyond, which may equate to equity weakness, in general. The monthly […]
40 Largest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week
Below is a snapshot of the 40 largest companies set to report earnings next week. For each stock, we show its current consensus EPS and revenue estimate, and we also show each stock’s historical EPS and revenue beat rate. On Monday morning, Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and M&T Bank (MTB) kick things […]
