Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
All The Banks Deserve Are Crocodile Tears
It’s official. Lending institutions are having a tough time making loans. Don’t get me wrong, they still make money the old fashioned way: by borrowing from us through deposits on which they pay almost no interest, and then lending it long term to anyone that qualifies. But they’ve had to jack up their other fees […]
Lemmings In Full Stampede Toward The Fiscal Cliff
The lemmings are now in full stampede toward the cliffs. You can literally hear the cold waters churning, foaming and crashing on the boulders far below. From bitcoin to Amazon, the financials, the Russell 2000 and most everything else in between, the casinos are digesting no information except the price action and are relentlessly rising on nothing more […]
Three USD Markets Point One Way
Simply put the USD is the biggest digital currency, and it dwarfs bitcoin by several orders of magnitude. It seems that the Fed itself does not realize its own game. Lets get into those digital currencies then! THURSDAY’S RISK EVENTS USD: Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI, Personal Spending m/m.EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, CPI Flash Estimate y/yGBP: N/A.JPY: […]
How Much Runway Is Left For The U.S. Expansion?
The U.S. expansion is over eight years old, and the S&P 500® Index is up almost 300 percent, cumulatively, from the bottom in 2009.1 This is the second longest bull market in modern history and the third longest economic expansion in records dating back to the 1800s. History would suggest that now is not the time to be complacent. After all, […]
Stocks Don’t Do Well Following Quiet Years Like 2017
End Of The Yield Curve Flattening Period Treats Stocks Well In continuation with our discussion about what the flattening yield curve means for stocks, the chart below shows the historical movements in the S&P 500 when the yield curve falls below 60 basis points. Firstly, you can see that the time it takes to invert […]
Q3 Real GDP Per Capita: 2.53% Versus The 3.30% Headline Real GDP
The Second Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 3.3% (3.30% to two decimals), up from 3.1% in the Third Estimate of Q2 GDP. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.53% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we’ve […]
Japanification Denial
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised upward from a seasonally-adjusted annual growth rate of 2.945% to 3.243%. For the first time since the middle of 2014, GDP appears to have advanced (subject to further revisions) at a better than 3% rate for two consecutive quarters. That level of growth used to be commonplace, even something […]
Liquidity And Volatility – A Direct Linkage
Written by John Davi, Astoria Portfolio Advisors Are you surprised by VIX sub 10? You shouldn’t be. There is a direct linkage between liquidity and volatility as shown in the chart below. Source: Bloomberg, Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. This year, we have seen $2.2 trillion USD in central bank balance sheet expansion globally (approx. 15% of the aggregate balance sheet […]
Myth Busting: Stock Correlations And Active Investment Opportunities
Many investors, investment professionals, and pundits make comments regarding the relationship between stock correlations and opportunities for active stock pickers. For example, here is a recent example from the Financial Times: Correlation crash clears the way for stockpickers. The basic (albeit flawed) intuition behind the statement is that when correlations are low, the variation in returns […]
4 Stocks To Gain Even If OPEC Decides Against Deal Extension
The scheduled meeting of OPEC members with non-OPEC crude exporters for the third time in Vienna, Austria, is dominating the headlines. It should provide an answer to the million-dollar question — will oil continue to trade above $55 a barrel? The landmark production-cut accord, first signed in late 2016, helped oil cross the $50-a-barrel […]
