Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Did Tariffs Really Cause The American Civil War?
In the first episode of the new season of Historical Controversies, which will focus on the sectional crises that led to the Civil War, I gave a brief explanation of my problem with the “Tariff Thesis” for the cause of southern secession. My arguments on the subject were the primary subject of criticism for the […]
BTC/USD Is Only A Few Hundred Dollars From $10k – Levels
Bitcoin (BITCOMP) does not rest on the weekend. The cryptocurrency, which was confined to a narrowing channel, made a clear breakthrough out of those level and hit new highs. A break of the previous top of $8367 was broken during the weekend and the new high is $9596, just 404 dollar away from the magic […]
The Fed Minutes — Another ‘irrational Exuberance’ Moment
Alan Greenspan in greener days December 5, 1996, then-Fed-Chair Alan Greenspan warned us about the “irrational exuberance” he felt was creeping into the market (the “Tech Bubble”). “Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in […]
Gobble, Gobble: Thanksgiving Dinners Stuffed With Savings Despite Rising Fuel Costs
I spend a lot of time writing and talking about inflation, especially as it affects the price of gold, oil and other commodities and raw materials. The year-over-year percent change in the cost of living has been reasonably low for the past five years, averaging about 1.3 percent on a monthly basis. For commodities, the […]
Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead, Sunday Nov. 26th
(Ffrom my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM FX ended the holiday-shortened week on a soft note. While most were up on the entire week, notable laggards were TRY, CLP, and ZAR. All three currencies underperformed due to rising political risks, and we suspect that will continue. We believe MXN and BRL are likely to rejoin […]
Black Friday Posts New Single-Day Record For Gun Background-Checks
Despite gunmaker stocks slumping as 2017 sees the biggest year-to-date decline in background check requests for firearms sales, USA Today reports that the FBI was flooded Friday with more than 200,000 background check requests for gun purchases, setting a new single day record, the bureau reported Saturday. While gun sales have been surging in recent years – largely driven […]
GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 27 – Dec. 1 2017
GBP/USD had a turbulent week with the government and the BOE both impacting the currency and eventually finished higher. The upcoming week sees the Bank Stress Tests and the first PMI for November as we enter the last month of the year. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. Brexit negotiations […]
The Dumbest Dumb Money Finally Gets Suckered In
Corporate share repurchases have turned out to be a great mechanism for converting Federal Reserve easing into higher consumer spending. Just allow public companies to borrow really cheaply and one of the things they do with the resulting found money is repurchase their stock. This pushes up equity prices, making investors feel richer and more […]
USD/JPY Weekly Analysis – November 26, 2017
USD/JPY broke below 111.47 key support, confirming that the upside movement from 107.31 had completed at 114.73 already. Further declines would likely be seen over the next several weeks and next target would be at 109.50. A breakdown below this level could take price towards 107.31 previous low. Near term resistance is at 112.90, only […]
Gold Failing To Capitalize On Weaker USD
The recent fall in the USD should have given gold traders and investors cause to celebrate given its strong inverse relationship with the precious metal, and they would have also have been cheered by the various commentators speculating that gold is perhaps now on the point of a dramatic rally higher. However, a cursory glance […]
