Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
USD/JPY Turning A Corner? Not So Fast – Forecast April 9-13
Dollar/yen started off the new fiscal year by extending its gains and moving higher. The optimism about a deal in the Korean peninsula, some optimism from Powell and a rise in US wages beat the fears of a trade war, at least for now. Can it continue? USD/JPY fundamental movers While the US gained only 103K jobs in […]
Indices’ Larger Pullback From The Highs Is Purely Technical
The indices’ larger pullback from the highs is purely technical despite whatever fundamental or reason the news suggests. I will show the technical reasoning. We will look at the Nikkei, FTSE, as well as the Hang Seng indices cycles up from the 2009 and 2008 lows. Each of these indices are shown progressively in the […]
The March Labor Market Update: Feebleness And Malfunction
The labor force hasn’t grown because the economy hasn’t. It really is just that simple. Because the economy isn’t actually growing, the labor market has been for a very long time caught in a chronic state of feebleness and malfunction. In linear terms, there are only positive numbers but that doesn’t matter nearly as much […]
Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Of April 9
EM and risk assets came under greater pressure Friday as trade tensions mount. This backdrop is not conducive for EM by any stretch, and unless tensions are ratcheted down, selling pressures are likely to remain in play. China reports March new loan and money supply data this week, but no date has been set. It reports March CPI […]
Have You Heard The One About The Dirty Shirt And The Flat Skew?
Last week, Goldman suggested it might be time for investors to hedge. Their rationale is as follows: We believe the VIX spike in early February was a significant event for investors, made even more significant last week as we revisited the YTD lows in the S&P 500. S&P 500 realized volatility was 6.8 in 2017 and has […]
The Truth About An Untethered Trump
The petulant adolescent in the White House – who has replaced most of the adults around him with raging sycophants and has demoted his chief of staff, John Kelly, to lapdog – lacks adequate supervision. Before, he was merely petty and vindictive. He’d tweet nasty things about people he wanted to humiliate, like former […]
Where’s Money Parked Globally This Year?
The following year-to-date graphs show, at a glance, which global indices, US sectors, commodities, currencies, bonds, as well as the FAANGs, have gained/lost the most, so far. My only comment is keep an eye on the Canadian and Aussie Dollars, as well as China, Canada and Australia, in particular, further weakness could hint of a recession in the not too-distant future.
Marijuana Stock Charts: How 3 Pot Plays Performed In Volatile Markets
Stocks tumbled well into the red on Friday, with heightened concerns about a trade war between the U.S. and China weighing on investors around the world. A tit-for-tat tariff battle is clearly the last thing Wall Street wants to see right now, and despite the promise of another strong earnings season, major indexes are falling […]
China Worries: Echoes Of Japan And The Soviet Union
There seems to be an ongoing fear in the psyche of Americans that an economy based on intensive government planning will inevitably outstrip a US economy that lacks such a degree of central planning. I first remember encountering this fear with respect to the Soviet Union, which was greatly feared as an economic competitor to […]
MMT Failing Miserably In Brazil
The “we owe it to ourselves” MMT nonsense failed in Japan and Venezuela. Brazil is an excellent case to watch. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) proposes that government spending and deficits do not matter because the government can always print more money. Anyone who has studied or lived through hyperinflation knows the theory is ridiculous at […]
