Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Stock Selloffs Great For Gold
The stock markets have rocketed higher since Trump’s election win on hopes for big corporate tax cuts. This extreme rally has left stocks exceedingly overvalued and overbought today. A major selloff is long overdue and likely imminent. When stocks inevitably roll over and mean revert lower to rebalance away euphoric sentiment, gold is the main […]
CPI Up 0.1 Percent: How Much Is The CPI Understated?
The BLS says the CPI is up 0.1% for the month and 2.1% from a year ago. What’s the real story? The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index […]
US Oil Rig Count Surges By Most In 7 Months – Will Shale Show Restraint?
Just as we suggested, US oil rig counts surged last week, tracking the lagged uptick in WTI prices and suggesting production’s upward path will continue (after last week’s weather-impacted drop). US Oil Rig Count rose 10 to 752 last week – the most since June 2017… The question is – as OilPrice.com’s Nick Cunningham asks (and answers) – Will Shale […]
Is GBPUSD Headed For 1.40?
Sterling rose to its strongest level since June on the back of U.S. dollar weakness and the prospect of a soft Brexit. On Friday, there were reports that the Spanish and Dutch support a soft Brexit that keeps Britain more closely tied with the rest of the region. The EU Parliament is also looking to […]
JPMorgan Q4 Earnings Beat Thanks To Investment Banking
Amid an expected trading weakness, strong investment banking results and higher rates drove JPMorgan’s (JPM – Free Report) fourth-quarter 2017 earnings of $1.76 per share, which handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.69. Results exclude a one-time tax-related charge of $2.4 billion or 69 cents per share. Solid loan growth (driven mainly by improved credit card loans) […]
The Dollar And Oil
“Davidson” submits: US$ has dropped past 2 days and the inverse to $WTI while not lock-step is prominent. US$ is in part coupled to global capital returns and how safe/strong investors believe capital returns are likely to be. When the US protects Democratic institutions globally and the rule of law, the US$ falls as capital leaves ‘safe-haven’ US$ […]
E Canadians Get A Reality Check By The Finance Minister
A sobering look at the Canadian economy by the Finance department argues that the recent rapid pace of growth is not sustainable over the next five years. As reported in the Canadian press today, an internal memo for Finance Minister Bill Morneau indicates that potential growth will be contained at 1.7 % through to 2022. […]
EUR/USD Forecast Jan. 15-19, 2018
EUR/USD dropped to lower ground but recovered nicely in a week that saw more volatility than the prior week. Final inflation figures stand out in the week before the ECB decision. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The ECB meeting minutes delivered more action than usual: […]
Paging Goldilocks: CPI Beat Makes Good News Bad Again
Remember “good news is bad news”? Of course you do. Because that’s the heart of the “Goldilocks” narrative that’s propping up risk assets. Bottom line: you do not want “too much” inflation pressure, because a sudden uptick in inflation could cause central banks to effectively revoke the market’s license to co-author the policy script by […]
Walmart Giveth, And Walmart Taketh Away
Walmart made two announcements yesterday that perfectly illustrate the dilemma facing the developed world. First, the omnipresent retailer raised its minimum wage to a respectable-sounding $11/hr: Walmart is raising its minimum wage and handing out tax cut bonuses (WGNO) – Walmart is raising its minimum wage and handing out tax cut bonuses because of the […]
