Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Are Crude Oil Prices Becoming Immune To Geopolitics?
Oil seems immune to what in the past — artificially, effectively and quickly — caused a surge in its prices. Recent OPEC cuts have had little (or no) effect on the market. The sanctions from Saudi Arabia (and other countries in the Persian Gulf) on Qatar were barely noticed. Unlike all NYSE indexes, that show a […]
The Dow Is The Most Overbought Since 1904
End Of The Streak- Stocks Still Overbought The stock market finally ended its remarkable run to start the year, but stocks are still euphoric. This 0.11% sell-off in the S&P 500 only ends the streak; it doesn’t make stocks less overbought. As you can see from the chart below, the 14 day RSI on the […]
Morgan Stanley Says Bonds Are Not In A Bear Market – No Word On ‘Men’
Listen, Morgan Stanley wants to know what the hell is up with Bloomberg because the Wednesday story about China’s alleged plans to “halt or slow” purchases of U.S. debt seemingly contradicts a June story that suggested China is set to increase its purchases. “When the first story was written in June 2017, 10y Treasuries yielded 2.20% and, apparently, Treasuries […]
Top-Ranked ETFs Crushing The S&P 500 To Start 2018
The momentum seen in 2017 has carried over into this year as the S&P 500 logged in six consecutive records closing in its first six trading sessions, marking the longest winning streak since 1964. However, two separate reports from Bloomberg and Reuters led to some nervousness among investors in the latest trading session. The Bloomberg […]
Crude Oil Price Breakout Testing Initial Resistance Targets
Crude Oil Weekly Chart Technical Outlook: Last month we highlighted that a multi-month consolidation break was imminent in crude prices with a topside breach favored. Oil broke out into the close of the year with the advance now eyeing near-term confluence resistance at 64.78– this level is defined by the 100% extension of the 2016 advance and converges on the […]
Investor Sentiment More Actionable At Market Bottoms
Today’s weekly AAII Sentiment Survey reports a drop in bullish investor sentiment of 11.1 percentage points to 48.7%. The bullish sentiment reading has been on a steady move higher since November 16 when the bullishness reading was 29.4%. The weekly readings tend to be more volatile and one can look at the 8-week moving average in order […]
Breakeven Refresher Lesson
I suspect in the coming years, we will hear much more about inflation protected securities (TIPS), and the accompanied derived breakeven rate. It is sometimes confusing to understand how nominal rates, real yields (TIPS yield rate) and breakevens all relate to one another, so I have made up a chart to help visualize the relationships. […]
EURUSD – Three Times The Charm?
After correcting for the past few days, the EURUSD skyrocketed right back through the 1.2000 figure after ECB minutes revealed that the Council is clearly starting to think about a taper. With EZ economy enjoying its best performance in more than a decade, there is plenty of scope for EU yields to rise further and […]
Why You Should Never Invest In Long Island Iced Tea Stock
If you are a fan of football, you know the following scenario well. Down 5 points with just seconds remaining, the losing team sends all of their players down the field into the end zone and tosses a hail mary in hopes of a miracle. Sometimes this prayer pays off. Most times it doesn’t. This […]
Bill Gross: The Bond Bear Actually Began 18 Months Ago, After The Brexit Vote
Bill Gross has released his latest investment outlook for Janus Henderson. And it is bearish for bonds. He writes: Bonds, like men, are in a bear market. For both, it’s hard to say when it all began. There was no Helen Reddy “I Am Woman” moment back in June 2012, and then again in July 2016 […]
