Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
The Most Important Chart In 2018 For U.S. Markets
Almost a year ago we warned readers about a potentially very important evolution on the very long term trends which we tend to call secular trends. In this article published early last year Disruption Ahead In Stock And Bond Markets? we explained what we are watching, and why. This is from last year’s article: Our favorite leading indicator […]
Market Talk – Tuesday, January 9
The Nikkei chased to record highs today following yesterdays national holiday. Closing at 26year high (+0.6% on the day) was an impressive performance made even more-so, by the fact the Yen strengthened. Trading around the mid 112’s looks comfortable this week but looks to be moving higher beginning February. Shanghai and Hong Kong were both […]
The Value Effect And Macroeconomic Risk
It has been well-documented that value stocks have provided higher expected returns than growth stocks. However, there is a great debate about the source of that premium: Is it risk-based or is it related to behavioral errors that create persistent mispricings? There are many papers presenting arguments on both sides. Hence the debate. Cathy Xuying Cao, Chongyang Chen […]
Best Pre-Earnings Period Since Q4 2010
Q4 Earnings Estimates Look Great This has been a remarkable pre-earnings period because the estimates have only moved down 0.3%. As you can see from the chart below, the earnings estimate change has been the best since when they were increased by 0.6% in Q4 2010. Q4 2010 was when the economy was just recovering […]
Yields Spiking On The Back Of A BoJ Statement
Doc joins me today to address the move in long-term yields. The Bank of Japan made a slightly surprise move last night by trimming its purchases of longer-dated JGBs. This is causing the US yields to spike with the 10 year now above 2.50%. However, 2.60% is the crucial level to watch. We also touch […]
Risk-Blind And The Great Bear Market Coming
Our son was born in December 1999, three months before the ‘irrationally exuberant’ stock market peak of March 2000. When he was young, we used to tell him that he was born at the top of the greatest stock market bubble of all time. Apparently we were mistaken. Celebrating his 18th birthday last month, we […]
Stocks And Precious Metal Charts – Masters Of War
Stocks tried to rally higher today, and tended to fall back a bit into the afternoon, finishing with modest increases. It is too early to say with any certainty, but this is starting to look like a blow off top. No need to guess; we will know it, when it confirms. It would most likely […]
With WTI Highest Since Dec 2014, Here’s 4 Factors That Could Derail The OPEC Deal
With WTI Crude futures topping $63, at the highest level since Dec 2014, it seems the market has convinced itself that everything is fixed thanks to OPEC, inventory overhangs are a thing of the past, and Aramco’s IPO can go ahead on its glorious fee-proving crescendo… However, as OilPrice.com’s Tsvetana Paraskova points out, 2018 may not […]
Will The World Economy Continue To “Roll Along” In 2018?
Once upon a time, we worried about oil and other energy. Now, a song from 1930 seems to be appropriate: Video length: 00:03:20 Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back around 1930. As most of us […]
November 2017 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Decline
The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be used as a predictor of future jobs growth, and the predictive elements show that the year-over-year growth rate of unadjusted private non-farm job openings again declined. The headline view also shows a decline. Analyst Opinion of JOLTS Data JOLTS had been showing little change […]
