Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Technicals Warn Of Coming Dollar Bounce
The US dollar had been sold hard in the second half of December through last week. Regardless of one’s medium or longer-term views, the technical indicators warn that the sell-off is stretched and in need of consolidation, if not a correction. The Dollar Index has formed a shelf near 91.75. Recall that the 91.55 area, which was […]
Dow 30,000 By Year End
The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed through 25,000 in the first week of 2018. True to form, the President weighed in on this record and indicated 30,000 is the next target, skipping over the 1,000 increment target milestones. His comment was replayed numerous times on television by the financial media Thursday with many commentators spinning […]
E These High Dividend Stocks Are Attractive Now
Two years ago, on this site, I recommended buying a basket of Business Development Companies (“BDCs”). On concerns about higher interest rates and CLOs held by BDCs, the stocks had collapsed, and were trading often at 50% of their book value and with yields in the mid-teens. The bargains did not last. As the overblown […]
EC Export-Led Growth Is Just A Fallacy
A fruitful discussion this morning with my Mercatus Center colleague Dan Griswold prompts me to observe that “export-led growth” makes no more or less sense than does, say, “yellow-things-led growth” or “rectangular-things-led growth” or “things-that-grow-in-the-ground-led growth” or “things-the-French-language-names-of-which-start-with-the-letter-‘T’-led growth.” X-Led Growth Is Not a Thing Economic growth occurs only when, and only as, there are […]
Risk Hits Record Low, Ripple Ravaged As Gold Has Longest Ever Win Streak
Quick summary of this week’s records: Record highs for S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq. Lowest VIX close ever. First time VIX has ever traded at or below 9.00 for 3 straight days ever. Nasdaq’s best start to a year since 2004. Near record streak for stocks to remain within 5% of all-time high ever. Individual investors […]
Investors Aren’t Bullish Enough On US Stocks For 2018
Over the last few days, I’ve been listening to Wall Street firms talk about their expectations for the year ahead. Almost all of them have a positive view but it is the same standard presentation over and over. Most of them conclude that they prefer international stocks over US stocks because of valuation. While Europe […]
Thoughts On Negative Interest Rates
A few years ago, most economic models presumed that interest rates were subject to a lower bound of zero. Why lend a dollar to someone who only promises to pay you back 99 cents, when you could just hold on to the dollar yourself? But we now have several years of experience from Sweden, Denmark, […]
Markets At Record Highs: 5 Bank Stocks To Bet On
It has only been a handful of days into 2018 and the markets are already touching record highs. It looks like the rally will continue for some time. The Dow Jones Industrial index crossed the 25,000 level for the first time yesterday, while other two major indexes — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed […]
S&P 500 Snapshot: 2018 Takes Off
The S&P 500 began 2018 hot out of the gate with a weekly gain of 2.6% and another record high. The index was up 0.7% from Thursday and is up 1.76% YTD. Here’s a quick look at the last month. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.47%. Here is […]
Emerging-Market Debt In 2018: The View From Here
Written by Shamaila Khan, Alliance Bernstein Emerging-market bonds delivered strong returns last year, and we think the sector has more potential in 2018. But global economic and geopolitical risks abound, making it more important than ever for investors to be selective. Emerging-market debt (EMD) got off to a rocky start in 2017 for fear that rising US […]
