Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Headline US Jobs Disappoint, But Earnings As Expected
The headline US non-farm payrolls disappointed, rising by 148k instead of the consensus of 180k-200k. However, the other details were largely as expected and are unlikely to change views about the trajectory of Fed policy or the general direction of markets. It is a very much steady as she goes story. The headline miss is not […]
How To Access Shareholder Yield In U.S. Small Caps
In U.S. equities, investors love the idea of small-cap stocks. Some of these companies represent the entrepreneurial spirit, and it’s no secret that many investors dream of the “lottery-like” experience of finding the next Facebook, Amazon, Netflix or Google before it becomes a giant company—collecting stratospheric returns along the way. More Realistic Strategies in U.S. […]
Trade Deficit Spikes To 6-Year High Despite Tumbling Dollar
Don’t show President Trump this chart… While the equity markets are exuberant, today’s payrolls data suggests all is not awesome, and the US trade balance print is just terrible. Despite the relative freefall in the US Dollar, the US trade deficit disappointed expectations, spiking above $50 billion. This is the biggest trade deficit since January 2012. […]
November Trade Deficit At $50.5B, Down 3.2% MoM
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The Bretton Woods agreement, which established a […]
Straight Up
Good jobs report, bad jobs report, it doesn’t matter. Here’s how the market has behaved since that tiny sell-off at the end of 2017: ………and……….. Nice going, Woody.
Weekend Reading: The “Brawny” Market
Yesterday, as I was researching the data on the Fed’s balance sheet as it relates to the future direction of interest rates, I stumbled across an interesting piece of analysis. The chart below shows the deviation of the market from the underlying liquidity provided by the Fed’s balance sheet. Not surprisingly, in 2006-2007 as the deviation […]
Opportunity Coming For Those Who Are Ready
While still up .7% over the last year, Toronto home prices fell for the 7th consecutive month in December, down 8.9% since May–the largest seven-month decline in data tracked since 2000. Falling 3.5% since November, the average sale price in Toronto is still–a wildly un-affordable for most–$735,021 ($1.2 million for single detached homes.) See Toronto home […]
Rail Week Ending December 30, 2017: 2017 Was A Relatively Good Year
Week 52 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors remain in expansion, but the decline in the last week of the year negatively affected all the averages. Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data We review […]
Canada Gains Another Whopping 78.6K, Unemployment Falls To 5.7% – USD/CAD Crashes
A second consecutive month of excellent jobs figures from Canada: 78.6K jobs gained and the unemployment rate falls to 5.7%. This comes on top of a similar report for November. The participation rate is also up to 65.8%. Wages are up 2.7%, slightly higher than in the US. USD/CAD crashes to 1.2374. Here is the […]
Cisco Upgraded To Buy On Software Transition, Valuation At BofA/Merrill
As previously reported, BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Tal Liani upgraded Cisco (CSCO) to Buy from Neutral, as he sees the company being in the early stages of a positive transition to software. While noting the strategy shift is not new, Liani said he is also incrementally more positive on Cisco’s stability following years of […]
