Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
E The Global Recovery Broadens Out And Gains Strong Momentum
“The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is […]
Some Abbreviated But Important Thoughts On Housing
I posted this chart yesterday to my Twitter feed (@inflation_guy, or @inflation_guyPV through PremoSocial for some additional content), but didn’t have time to write very much about it. This is the Shiller 20-City Home Price Index year/year change (Source: Bloomberg). My observation was that when you take out the housing bubble, it looks more ominous. […]
Billion Dollar Unicorns: HelloFresh Lists Successfully
According to research from Second Measure, the US meal kit market is worth $5 billion and is led by Blue Apron with a 57.5% market share. Early this month, Billion Dollar Unicorn HelloFresh , which has a market share of 28.4%, listed successfully on the Frankfurt exchange. While Blue Apron’s market share is plummeting, HelloFresh is on […]
HH How To Position For Cyclical Recovery In Europe
A big storyline heading into 2018 is whether this year’s strong performance in European equities will continue in the year to come or if it was merely a flash in the pan for an otherwise dysfunctional economy. While there are potential headwinds for the recovery (namely, ever-present political risks and the challenge of negative interest […]
Tax Cuts To Increase Debt And Share Buybacks, Not Jobs
The president has held fast to his pledge even as top executives’ comments have run counter to it for months. Instead of hiring more workers or raising their pay, many companies say they’ll first increase dividends or buy back their own shares.See Trump’s tax promises undercut by CEO’s plans to reward shareholders. The last thing the […]
Bitcoin The False God
Some folks did not take Jack Bogle’s advice. On Tuesday, the father of indexing delivered a pretty straightforward assessment of Bitcoin. “There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it,” Bogle said, in response to a question at at a Council on Foreign Relations […]
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Wednesday, November 29
WTI Crude Oil With today being the Crude Oil Inventories announcement in the United States, likely that we will see a significant amount of volatility. We had initially fallen on Tuesday, but turned around to form a bit of a hammer. A break above the top of the candle for the day should send this […]
Growth Alert: New Home Sales Hit 10-year High
Sales of new single-family homes surprised economists in October to the upside. Sales rose last month hitting their highest level in 10 years amid robust demand across the country. The Commerce Department said new home sales increased by 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 units. That was the highest level since […]
Second Estimate 3Q2017 GDP Growth Improves To 3.3 %
The headline second estimate of third quarter 2017 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was increased to a positive 3.3 % from the advance estimate’s 3.0 %. Year-over-year growth was unchanged from the advance estimate. Analyst Opinion of GDP The consumer spending declined, but the real improvement came from fixed investment. I am not a fan of quarter-over-quarter […]
Q3 GDP Revised Up To 3.3%, Highest In 3 Years
After the BEA estimated that US GDP rose an already impressive 3.0% in Q3, moments ago the Department of Commerce revised its estimate for third-quarter growth to 3.3% annualized, higher than the 3.2% print expected, the highest since the third quarter of 2014. On a Y/Y basis, GDP rose by 2.3%, the highest since Q3 2015: […]
