Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Popular Bear Thesis Creates Probabilistic Opportunity, Francesca’s
Francesca’s holdings (FRAN) is a specialty retailer with 671 boutiques in 48 states. E-commerce reports 7% of sales. Revenue by product broken down as follows; Apparel 49%, Jewelry 23%, accessories 15% and Gifts 13%. More specific, Apparel 49% (Dresses, Fashion Tops, Sweaters, Cardigans and Wraps, Bottoms, Outerwear and Jackets, Tees and Tanks, Intimates): Jewelry 23% (Necklaces, Earrings, Bracelets, Rings): Accessories […]
The FOMC’s November 1st Meeting Conundrum
What Is The Conundrum? The Federal Reserve has been very clear through its’ forward policy guidance that it will slowly increase the Fed Funds Rate. “Slow” should more appropriately be described here as at a “Glacier Pace”! Additionally, the Fed plans to gradually reduce the central banks’ balance sheet at a slowly increasing rate. A rate […]
Americans Too: IMF Warns Record US Household Debt Is ‘Economic Trap’
The International Monetary Fund devotes two chapters of its latest Global Financial Stability Report to the issue of household debt and points out: High household debt levels deepen and prolong economic recessions. US household debt is back at pre-Great recession levels hitting $12.84 trillion in the second quarter of 2017. The report offers this flowchart of the […]
GBP/USD Remains Capped By 1.3200 Hurdle Ahead Of U.K. 3Q GDP Report
EUR/USD pares the decline from earlier this week, with the exchange rate at risk of facing range-bound conditions ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on October 26 as President Mario Draghi and Co. appear to be on course to wind down the asset-purchase program. The Governing Council is widely expected to move away from its […]
Why The King Of Debt Is So Wrong!
Donald Trump has always reminded anyone who would listen that he is the “King of Debt”. Given his record at the 271-day mark in the Oval Office, we can’t but wholeheartedly agree. The Donald’s Treasury Department has borrowed an average of $95 million dollars per hour on a 24/7 basis ever since inauguration day! As Senator Dirksen famously said, pretty […]
How Much Of Our Discord Is The Result Of The “Engagement” Advert Revenue Model Of Social Media?
The goal of maximizing profits for shareholders by any means available incentivizes discord as the primary source of profits. Few would deny that social discord is rising. The proposed causes range from wealth/income inequality to the rise of polarizing political ideologies and the Trump presidency. A few commentators are starting to question the role of social media in […]
NZD/USD Back In Downtrend, Crude Oil Testing Neckline-Elliott Wave
We have seen some nice breakdown on NZD/USD last week, a push below two-year-old trendline support which means that pair can be in a new bearish cycle. We are tracking an impulsive decline, meaning that weakness is expected to stay here until we see a big five wave drop from 2017 high. It’s a long […]
The Mother Of All Breakouts Still In Play
Short-Term View The NYSE Composite stock index traded near the bottom of the orange box shown below in 2013 and 2016. The index visited the top of the box in 2014, 2015, and again in late 2016, before breaking out. A successful retest of the breakout occurred earlier in 2017. Fractals Are Key Since markets […]
FANG Stocks Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since Election As Earnings Hopes Slide
The so-called FANG group of stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) fell for the fifth day yesterday – the longest losing streak since right after the election. Worst 5-day drop in almost 4 months, sliding back to 3-week lows… NFLX is the biggest loser in the last 5 days (down 5%) and while TSLA is not in […]
Lilly (LLY) Beats On Q3 Earnings, Explores Sale Of Elanco
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY – Free Report) reported third-quarter 2017 adjusted earnings per share of $1.05, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 per share by 1.9%. Earnings rose 19% from the year-ago quarter backed by volume driven pharma sales growth and higher operating profits. Revenues Beat Quarterly revenues of $5.66 billion also beat the Zacks […]
