Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Is The Current U.S. Equity Market Rally Sustainable?
U.S. equities continue to be a beacon of growth on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. With a YTD performance for the S&P 500 of +11.6%,1 many debate whether drivers of this market rally are macroeconomic numbers, the turnaround in corporate earnings or something else. Is there anything we can say about whether this trend will continue? I believe our […]
Citi Starts BioMarin At Buy With $169 Per Share ‘Blue Sky Scenario’
Citi analyst Robyn Karnauskas started BioMarin (BMRN) with a Buy rating and $98 price target. The analyst sees approval of pegvaliase for the treatment of phenylketonuria, which has an FDA action date of February 28, 2018, as likely driving upside. BioMarin is an orphan disease company entering a period of profitability with three “controversial” programs, […]
How Much Is Too Much
The amount of monetary stimulus increasingly imposed on the financial system creates false signals about the economy’s true growth rate, causing a vast misallocation of capital, impaired productivity and weakened economic activity. To help quantify the amount of stimulus, please consider the graph below. Data Courtesy: Federal Reserve Federal Reserve (Fed) stimulus comes in two […]
Searching For Alphabet’s True Worth? Should We Google It?
Introduction This is the third in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision. I elaborated on the importance of forecasting future growth in part […]
Great Graphic: Young American Adults Living At Home
This Great Graphic caught our eye (h/t to Gregor Samsa @macromon). It comes from the US Census Department, and shows, by state, the percentage of young American adults (18-34 year-olds). The top map is a snap shot of from 2005. A little more than a quarter of this cohort lived at home. A decade later, and on the other […]
Which Way Wednesday – GDP Edition
To 3(%) or not to 3(%). As you can see from the Fed’s GDPNow forecast, it’s raging ahead of the forecasts of our leading Economorons by a wide margin. Usually, I bet against the Economorons but the Fed is full of them too so it’s a toss-up as to who is likely to be more […]
Gold Reset To $10,000/oz Coming “By January 1, 2018” – Rickards
– Trump could be planning a radical “reboot” of the U.S. dollar – Currency reboot will see leading nations devalue their currencies against gold – New gold price would be nearly 8 times higher at $10,000/oz – Price based on mass exit of foreign governments and investors from the US Dollar – US total debt now […]
Dunkirk In Houston
Watching the widespread devastations in Houston due to what was Hurricane Harvey, has been gut wrenching and now that this storm has regenerated and made a second landfall in Louisiana, just west of the town of Cameron, its impact on lives and property is just starting to be measured. Ordinary citizens in Houston have been […]
Q2 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP At 3.0%
The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 3.0% (3.03% to two decimal places), an increase over 1.2% for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.7%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual […]
RBOB Gasoline Spikes To 25-Month Highs As Harvey Curbs Output
Front-month (Sept) RBOB Gasoline futures traded as high as $1.90 this morning – the highest since July 2015 – as more refiners (including America’s largest) shutdown output due to Harvey’s impact. As Bloomberg reports, America’s largest oil refinery is joining the spate of shut-downs in the face of Tropical Storm Harvey’s apocalyptic rains, potentially reducing U.S. fuel-making capacity to […]
