Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Dot Plot Fantasyland Projections
The Economic projections made at today’s FOMC meeting are straight from Fantasyland. 4.75%-5.00% Interest Rates in 2020? That’s what one economic clown believes. Did anyone bother to calculate interest on the national debt at even 4.00%? Judging from the dot plot, it appears the Fed is thinking about a recession or a perfect landing sometime […]
Is Record Business Optimism A Contrarian Indicator?
The purpose of this article is to objectively examine regulations and the impact on the economy. While there will be discussion of government policy, our review is not negatively nor positively inclined towards any particular administration. Many in the United States are in favor of increased regulations, however, the unintended consequences of these laws aren’t […]
There’s An ETF For That
Blackrock (iShares) had a wide-ranging blog post that included how to reposition in what it believes is a change in volatility regimes. The big idea is that last year’s extremely low volatility readings were, of course, going to end at some point and that the return to a higher volatility regime, whether that meant a “return to […]
FOMC Statement March 21, 2018
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending […]
The Media Strikes Back Against Facebook
Facebook Continues Its Decline Facebook stock was down 2.6% on Tuesday as the headlines about the Cambridge Analytica story swirled. I have a new perspective on the story which I don’t think others have covered. This situation is all about stakeholders in the company. Facebook will have an extremely tough time satisfying stakeholders because almost […]
EC The S&P 500 And Stephen Hawking: A Theory On “Peak Everything”
The NASDAQ served up an annualized return of 66% in its final two years of dot-com mania. Only after the balloon had burst did people begin to question the lunacy of paying 10x revenue for the privilege of being a shareholder. Ironically enough, since early 2016, the top 10 growth names in tech collectively produced […]
Fed Signals 2 More Hikes In 2018: Dot Plot, Projections, Statement, Analysis
Ok, here comes the main event. There’s been so much written about this over the past two weeks that it would be impossible to try and summarize it (some recent posts here and here and here), but the bottom line is that all eyes are first and foremost on the median 2018 dot (four or three?). Then there’s the growth […]
Banks, Brokers Spike Higher After Fed Hikes Rates
Shares of U.S. banks and brokerage firms are rallying after The Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to a range of 1.5%-1.75%. The financial sector’s profitability increases with higher interest rates. Retail banks, commercial banks, investment banks, insurance companies, and brokerages have large cash holdings due to customer balances. Interest rate […]
Can Energy ETFs Rebound On Middle East Tension?
Oil price is recoiling this month after ending a five-month streak of gains in February. This is especially true, as some positive sentiments have again started to build up in the oil market, which were under pressure from growing U.S. crude production. In fact, oil price climbed more than 2% in the last trading session […]
Fed Hikes Quarter Point, Raises Economic Forecast
As expected, the Fed hiked a quarter of a point. Growth projections are up from December. The Fed anticipates three rate hikes this year. Here is a summary of Economic Projections. The FOMC Statement was pure boilerplate. Nonetheless, mainstream media pored over every word as if it matters. Here is some nonsense courtesy of Bloomberg. In another change to […]
