Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Taylor Rule Could Spike Interest Rates Higher
President Trump is said to be considering tapping Stanford economist John Taylor as the next Fed Chairman. If Taylor gets the nod, it is possible that the Fed adopts the Taylor rule to set the Fed funds rates. The so-called Taylor rule is a formula that he proposed in 1993 for setting the federal funds rate — […]
What Could Go Wrong?
Yesterday’s missive took a glass-is-half-full stance by exploring the various tailwinds the bulls are counting on to keep stock prices movin’ on up. The list included earnings, economic growth, low inflation, ongoing QE, favorable seasonality, the flows into passive funds/ETFs, performance anxiety, performance chasing, the preponderance of dip-buying, and, of course, the tax trade. Good […]
Pending Home Sales Plunge In September To Lowest Since Jan 2015
Following September’s modest bounce in existing home sales, and explosion in new home sales (biggest jump in 25 years), today’s pending home sales was a huge disappointment, blowing the bounce back narrative. Pending Home Sales tumbled 5.4% YoY… To its lowest since Jan 2015… Take your pick – is the housing ‘recovery’ good, bad, or ugly… The […]
E German DAX And EUR/GBP US Update
Hello traders! And welcome to the US sessions, where we will be looking at German DAX and EUR/GBP. Let’s dig in. German DAX made a new spike higher, away from the 12900 region, where wave 4) triangle looks to have ended. If so, the current recovery can be the start of a new five-wave impulse […]
Nike Debate No Longer ‘If,’ But ‘When’ It Can Recover, Says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Jay Sole said that Nike addressed almost all of the key questions the market had going in to its analyst day and “impressively demonstrated” it has the products, supply chain innovation, distribution strategy, marketing and brand strength needed to win. While he contends the key debate is no longer “if” Nike […]
October 21, 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improvement Continues
Hurricanes Irma and Maria impacted this week’s claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg/Econoday) were 230 K to 240 K (consensus 235,000), and the Department of Labor reported 233,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims […]
More Volatility As Stocks Retrace Some Of Their Recent Rally
Briefly: Intraday trade: Our Wednesday’s intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved accurate because the S&P 500 index lost 0.5%, following neutral opening of the trading session. However, the market didn’t reach our intraday profit target level of 2,535 (daily low at 2,544.00). The S&P 500 index may retrace more of its October rally. Therefore, […]
Euro Drops Against The Dollar Following ECB Meeting
Today, Thursday October 26, the US dollar showed some mixed dynamics during the European session leading up to the ECB meeting. It rose against the Kiwi dollar, pound, franc, and euro, while losing ground against the loonie, yen, and Aussie dollar. The euro rate corrected from the Asian high of 1.1837 to 1.1802 (-35) […]
Bullish Sentiment Approaches 40%
In normal times a bullish sentiment reading of 40% wouldn’t be much of a big deal, but given the state of sentiment over the last several years, 40% is now considered an accomplishment. In this week’s sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment increased 1.7 percentage points up to 39.6%. That represents a five-week high, but also a […]
Biotech Battered To 2-Month Lows As Celgene Crashes
The S&P Biotech Index is now down 9% from its early October highs, extending losses today thanks to the collapse in Celgene’s share price after it lowered its outlook. As Bloomberg reports, Celgene Corp. dropped 18 percent in early U.S. trading after lowering its long-term profit target. The drugmaker, known for its hematology and oncology treatments, […]
