Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Liquidity Provider Signals Collapse In Global ETF Trading
Trading in low cost, passive investment products might be more vulnerable than some thought. Global ETF trading collapsed by 14% in Q3 2017 versus Q2 2017 – and was described as “unusually slow”. Global ETF trading in September 2017 was 24% lower than the same month a year ago. For those unfamiliar, Flow Traders NV is a global electronic […]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Declines In October 2017
Of the three regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion. Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing The Richmond Fed subcategories were positive, The data is not as good as last month. Market expectations from Bloomberg/Econoday was 15 to 20 (consensus 20). The actual survey value was 12 [note that values above zero […]
Gold Bulls – Be Cautious Now
The prices of US 10-year treasury notes are at an inflection point now: Source: Stockcharts.com The chart above shows gold prices plotted against 10-year treasury notes prices. Note that each time the treasuries are close to their support (the area marked in orange), gold prices rebound. Now the treasuries are again at their technical support. […]
The Trump Trade Dump – Why It’s Coming Soon
The Donald’s twitter-finger wasted no time Monday morning slinging another verbal dart into the bull (market). Even though the talking heads will likely deny it until the cows come home, too, the stock market is hovering at its current insanely over-valued levels owing to the fantasy of a big corporate rate cut. But it’s not happening because the GOP can’t agree on a […]
Gold: Weakens On Failed Follow Through Higher
Gold: The commodity now faces further weakness after failing to follow through higher on the back of its Monday gains. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,270.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,260.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards […]
Abe’s Victory And Gold
On Sunday, Abe won the snap election in Japan. What does it mean for the gold market? Over the weekend, the general election to Japan’s House of Representatives took place. The Liberal Democratic Party coalition won, gaining 284 seats, while the Komeito got 29 seats. It means that the ruling coalition won 313 seats combined […]
Is The Shape Of The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Warning That A Recession May Be Imminent?
Back in the 1980’s when working as a municipal bond analyst, I would keep investors informed about the shape of the tax-free yield curve! If the yield curve was positive and steep, or in other words a significant difference between short and long-term yields, then investors would be getting compensated for taking on the additional […]
Strange Things Happening In The Paper Gold Market
Back in September, the hedge funds that speculate with gold futures contracts got extremely bullish, which – since speculators are usually wrong when they’re overexcited – was a signal that gold would be going down for a while. It did: Then things departed from the usual script. A falling gold price tends to make trend-following […]
EC China’s Political Tea Leaves
The 19th Party Congress in China is winding down. President Xi was the core leader before the Congress, and his priorities drove the agenda for the past five years. Expectations for a dramatic shift in policy or priorities seem unfounded. There is declaratory policy and operational policy, and much of the speeches and analysis have focused on the former. What […]
Tractor Supply Company: Wedgewood Capital Sees No Threat From Amazon
Wedgewood Capital is bullish on Tractor Supply Company (Nasdaq: TSCO), an 80-year old rural lifestyle retail store chain in the U.S. In its 2017 Q3 investor letter (a copy of which can be download here), Wedgewood Capital discussed its investment thesis on Tractor Supply, saying that the retail market in the U.S. is a “monstrous” and […]
