Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
If Consumers Stop Spending, Stocks And Real Estate Will Slide
Here is an economic data point that you will not hear about in the mainstream financial media: U.S. wage growth in 2017 had been the weakest since 2010. In fact, labor costs rose a paltry 0.35% on a year-over-year basis. Are higher wages for workers, then, right around the bend? Some believe that the tighter […]
E Deere Is Stronger Than Ever
Although we have long viewed Deere (DE) as a dividend name, we believe the stock will continue to offer capital appreciation from present levels. In this column, we discuss the segment-specific performance, growth of the name, and offer projections for 2018. Sales were strong for the company in the most recent quarter, and both agriculture […]
The Bullish Iguana Enjoys The Midday Sun
While working, this iguana popped out of the Bougainvillea to say hi. Enjoying the midday sun, the iguana got me thinking. How is it that this market, facing all kinds of obstacles each and every day, manages to climb up and enjoy its version of the midday sun? As the creator and proponent of my […]
Gold Setting Up For Breakout In Second Half Of 2018
According to Jordan, bond yields are the key. Gold has been going up with long term bond yields. As they’ve gone up, so has gold. Just like gold, long term bond yields are set to break out. All the requirements for a major metals advance are in place. It just requires a little time and […]
Market Talk – Wednesday, March 7
Gary Cohn’s resignation, although highly rumoured yesterday, was to have a negative effect on all markets once confirmed. The Asian indices held in initially, but only to fade into the close. The Shanghai core traded in positive territory for much of the day with the decline almost restricted to the final 30 minutes of trading. […]
EUR/USD Long, GBP/USD Long
Top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, who became a key architect of the 2017 tax overhaul and a bulwark against protectionist forces within the Trump administration, resigned. Cohn’s resignation came after Trump said he was sticking with plans to impose hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. While the measures on their own are […]
Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita: Our Latest Look At The Long-Term Trend – Wed, March 7
Note: The charts below have been updated to include the latest report on U.S. Light Vehicle sales from the BEA. For the past few years, we’ve been following a couple of transportation metrics: Vehicle Miles Traveled and Gasoline Volume Sales. For both series, we focus on the population adjusted data. Let’s now do something similar with the Light Vehicle […]
Capital Markets Review & Commentary
February marked the end of a 15-month winning streak for the S&P 500. At the end of a long, prosperous roll at a craps table in Vegas, it is traditional to applaud the shooter. The investing world tends to be more forward-looking, so the streak received little fanfare. But it was truly impressive, stretching back […]
March 2018 Beige Book: Reading Between The Lines – Rate Of Economic Expansion Again Little Changed
The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) stated “economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts in January and February“. The previous report stated “economy continued to expand from late November through the end of the year, with 11 Districts reporting modest to […]
A Trade War Off These Import Figures?
After an incredible run, up nearly 10% in just four months, imports took a break in January 2018. Year-over-year, not seasonally-adjusted, imports gained 9.5%, a rate that is better than experienced during the similar upturn in 2014 but still well short of what the rest of the world requires for global growth. The fact that […]
