Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Is Everything Expensive?
The chart below is interesting because it appears that profit margins are near their current peak. I expect Q3 margins to be down, but that’s only because of hurricane related weakness. My inkling is that the numbers here might be different because they are pre-tax margins. The stats I look at are all after taxes. […]
Weather Saves Natural Gas This Time
If one were to look at the day-over-day movement of prompt month natural gas prices or the Henry Hub cash market today, it would seem like not much of interest occurred. One quick look at the daily natural gas candlestick chart, however, and the story quickly changes. To start, this morning the Energy Information Administration […]
Apple Drags On Nasdaq After Report Of Reduced Iphone 8 Orders
Shares of Apple (AAPL) and some of the company’s suppliers are sliding after a report by a Taipei newspaper saying the tech giant reduced orders for its iPhone 8 models by over 50% for the remainder of the year due to a lukewarm reception. Commenting on the news, Drexel Hamilton analyst Brian White told investors […]
The ECRI Index Is Pointing To Weak Economic Growth In The Months Ahead
I don’t have time for much today… The two major bullish percents heading in opposite directions. The Short-Term Leader List The strongest ETFs are blue, the additional leaders are green and the weakest are red. The S&P500 is the benchmark. Outlook The ECRI index is pointing to weak economic growth in the […]
USD/CAD – Back To 1.2600?
Of all the comm dollars, none has held up as well against the buck as the loonie. While all others have tumbled against the greenback, the Canadian dollar held firm rejecting 1.2500 level on multiple occasions. A big reason for loonie’s relative strength is the fact that the BOC is the only other G-7 […]
Secular Trends In Residential Building Permits And Housing Starts – Thursday, Oct. 19
Yesterday, we reported separately on the latest residential building permits and housing starts in the government’s monthly report, courtesy of the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Despite the fact that both are monthly SAAR series (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), they are exceptionally volatile and subject to extensive revisions. Thus it is unwise to assign […]
Hurricanes Aren’t The Only Reason Gas Prices Are High
While some of the rise in gas prices can be blamed on hurricane-related supply disruption, regulatory burdens play an even bigger role. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Nate highlighted the exposure to life and property all along the Gulf Coast. Of the critical national assets that took a hit, the crux of the U.S. refining industry […]
October 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improvement Continues
Hurricanes Irma and Maria impacted this week’s claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg/Econoday) were 235 K to 250 K (consensus 240,000), and the Department of Labor reported 222,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims […]
Black Monday – 30 Years Between The Monetary Book Ends
This episode happened back in the days before cell phones, and that’s what made it all the more unnerving. Your editor was speaking to an audience of nearly 1,000 investors at a Salomon Brothers conference (our then employer) in Boca Raton on the morning of October 19, 1987. At first, a few people got up from their chairs and walked out, which […]
The Last Time Stocks Were This Calm, England Won The World Cup
1966 was a big year... Miranda Rights came into being in America, Vietnam War protests raged, the US Department of Transportation was created, the mini skirt was invented, Batman and Star Trek debuts, NASA launches Lunar Orbiter 1 – the first U.S. spacecraft to orbit the Moon, race riots raged in Atlanta, Ronald Reagan entered […]
