Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Trade Gap Widens More Than Expected: Expect More Trump Howls
Economists expected the trade gap to increase, but the results were even worse, with falling exports the main culprit. The Commerce Department International Trade report for January shows the US trade deficit with the rest of the world increased to $-56.6 billion from a revised higher $55.1 billion in December. Trade Highlights January exports were $200.9 billion, […]
4 Hot Sector ETFs Springing Up To Rank No. 1
Threats of inflation, faster-than-expected interest rates, and the possibility of a trade war are playing foul in the U.S. stock market. In fact, Wall Street had a tumultuous ride last month when the major indices dropped to correction territory at one point of time. Trump’s tariff proposal also spooked markets late last week, sparking threats […]
Market Valuation, Inflation And Treasury Yields: Clues From The Past – Wed, March 7
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly data. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — […]
Really Looking For Inflation, Part 1
Most people have been looking at Jerome Powell’s Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve as continuity, a comprehensive extension of Janet Yellen’s (and therefore Bernanke’s). This would by nature include all the nasty habits Chairman Yellen had picked up during her one term. At the top of that list is the word “transitory”, particularly how it […]
Stocks Will Fall 36% In The Next Bear Market
Earnings Estimates Done Going Up There has been a sharp multiple compression this year which makes it less likely stocks will crater. Stocks had a correction in February, but are up year to date. The compression has come from earnings estimates increasing dramatically in the past 3 months. As you can see from the chart […]
Cryptocurrency Exchange Binance Open To New Users But Possible Hack Hits Bitcoin
Good news! You can now get a new binance account after months of it being closed to the public for new users! Bad news. Numerous concerned users have taken to Reddit to complain that popular cryptocurrency exchange desk Binance has suddenly begun to sell their altcoins at market rate – without their consent and without any notification whatsoever. […]
The Gold Price Can Only Move Higher
Perfect Storm of Trade Wars and Cold Wars Will Drive the Gold Price Higher The gold price has started to recover, posting strong gains on March 6. The gold price per ounce has finally reversed the bearish trend that began in the second half of February to reach $1,332. This increase is at once surprising […]
USD/CAD Resilience To Persist As BoC Sticks To Wait-And-See Approach
The near-term rebound in AUD/USD fizzles as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe tames expectations for an imminent rate-hike, and the pair may continue to consolidate over the next 24-hours of trade as market attention turns to the key developments coming out of the U.S. economy. Even though Governor Lowe reiterates that ‘it is likely […]
Trade War Talks Heat Up: ETFs & Stocks In Focus
The European Union (EU) has threatened the United States of a tit-for-tat situation should Trump impose a 25% tax on foreign steel. This is especially true as the EU would propose a retaliatory tariff of 25% on a range of consumer, agricultural and steel products imported from the country, valued about 2.8 billion euros ($3.5 […]
Corporate Tax Cuts: Taking A Page From The Japanese Playbook
One of the biggest discussions in the U.S. market in 2017—particularly in the fourth quarter—concerned corporate taxes. While the earnings growth that comes from the cut in corporate tax rates to 21% will play out in 2018 and beyond, we can look at how Japanese earnings responded to the lowering of corporate tax rates that […]
