Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
October 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Index Near Post Recession Highs
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved and now is near post Great Recession highs. It was above expectations. Important internals were in expansion but declined. Analyst Opinion of Empire State Manufacturing Survey I am not a fan of surveys – and this survey jumps around erratically. Expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday were for a reading […]
10Y Spikes Over 3.00% Or Copper Crashes – What Happens Next?
The spread between 10Y Treasury yields and the ratio of copper-to-gold has never been wider as the former signals recessionary economics (flattest curve since 2007) and the latter reflationary recovery (highest in 3 years)… so who is right? Bond yields are sliding as Gundlach’s favorite signal (copper/gold) soars… implying 10Y over 3.01% (75bps higher than the current […]
GBP/USD Falls To Support As May’s Brussels Trip Looks Unfruitful
PM Theresa May made a trip to Brussels on a short notice. So far, it seems that this trip is not yielding any fruits. GBP/USD is falling to support at 1.3230. Further support awaits only at 1.3110. Resistance is at 1.3340. May, alongside Brexit minister David Davis, flew to the Belgian capital to meet with Jean-Claude […]
BlackBerry In Focus As Patent Licensing Director Exits
Shares of BlackBerry (BB)(BBRY) are in focus after a senior executive is said to have left the company, marking the second high-level departure in the last three weeks. EXECUTIVE DEPARTURES: Victor Schubert, a key attorney executing BlackBerry’s patent licensing strategy told Reuters in a LinkedIn message that he is no longer with the company. Schubert […]
Playing The Part In NAFTA Negotiations
As the fourth round of NAFTA negotiations comes to an end, the agreement’s survival has once again been brought into question. US President Donald Trump has threatened to strike a new deal with just Canada. Mexico downplayed the threat, saying it would walk away from negotiations if the new terms brought by the US put […]
China And Reflation
Chinese PPI inflation picked up further in September, accelerating to 6.9% (6.3% previous, and consensus). It forms part of a trend that we have seen in China towards higher generalized inflation. We’re also seeing PPI inflation accelerating in the less commodity driven sectors, so it’s not entirely a commodity story. Likewise, non-food CPI inflation has been running […]
Aluminum Is The Surprise Bull Market Of The Year
Unlike base metals like zinc or copper, there isn’t a supply problem with aluminum, per se. That is, aluminum is a plentiful metal. Bauxite, aluminum ore, is the primary source of aluminum. It’s nearly all that remains when you weather granite mountains into clay. Bauxite is common in the tropics. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there are […]
What Do The Bulls Have Here?
Any kind of strength whether it is by a gap higher or intraday rally, immediately gets sold off. We’ve seen it almost every day now over the last seven trading sessions. Throughout the past week, I was adding and subtracting positions. I was booking profits in Nvidia (NVDA) for 4%, and Olin Corp (OLN) for 5.2%, while adding new positions like Ferrari (RACE) and Lam […]
NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen’s Best Guess Supports Greenback
In a relatively quiet week for economic data, except for the UK, we suggested that politics may trump economics. Today, the Canadian dollar is the weakest of the major currencies, losing about 0.5%, while the Mexican peso is the poorest performer among emerging market currencies, losing closer to 1%. The move began last week. Over the […]
Richard Sylla: 70% To 80% Chance Of Another Global Financial Crisis
When Janet Yellen, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said in June that she does not expect another financial crisis in our lifetime, eyebrows were raised. None more so than Richard Sylla’s. Sylla, a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business and co-author with Sydney Homer of the magisterial A History of Interest Rates, has studied […]
