Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen’s Best Guess Supports Greenback
In a relatively quiet week for economic data, except for the UK, we suggested that politics may trump economics. Today, the Canadian dollar is the weakest of the major currencies, losing about 0.5%, while the Mexican peso is the poorest performer among emerging market currencies, losing closer to 1%. The move began last week. Over the […]
Richard Sylla: 70% To 80% Chance Of Another Global Financial Crisis
When Janet Yellen, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said in June that she does not expect another financial crisis in our lifetime, eyebrows were raised. None more so than Richard Sylla’s. Sylla, a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business and co-author with Sydney Homer of the magisterial A History of Interest Rates, has studied […]
Morgan Stanley Says Sell Omnicom As ‘New Normal’ Not Good For Ad Agencies
Shares of Omnicom (OMC) are sliding after Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne downgraded the stock to Underweight, the firm’s equivalent to a sell rating, as he contends that “lower for longer is the new normal” for advertising agencies. The analyst also cut his price target on peer Interpublic Group (IPG), while nothing he disagrees with […]
Investment Banks Goldman Sachs And Morgan Stanley Round Out Big Banks Reporting Season Tomorrow
(Photo Credit: Fortune Live Media) Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will be reporting their quarterly earnings tomorrow morning. Here’s a look at how they are predicted to fare for Q3. Goldman Sachs (GS) Financials – Capital Markets | Reports October 17, BMO After a steady end to 2016 and first quarter of 2017, Goldman Sachs’ […]
Iraq-Kurd Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher
Crude oil extended gains on Monday after Iraqi forces captured a military base, oil fields and an airport outside Kirkuk in the Northern part of Iraq. Brent crude oil rose 1.5 percent to $58.02 a barrel on Monday as at 1:45 p.m. Nigerian time. While, West Texas Intermediate gained 1.2 percent to $52.06 a barrel. […]
Can We Have An ETF Meltdown?
What is the magic that allows us to have intraday liquidity through an ETF on a market that itself trades more or less by appointment? Case in point: the high yield bond market. Or emerging markets. Or just about any bond market short of sovereigns and maybe agencies. Suppose there is a sudden rush for […]
A Long-Term Look At Inflation – Monday, October 16
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released Friday puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.23%. It is substantially below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.74%. For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the […]
4 Construction Stocks Poised For A Q3 Earnings Beat
The positive momentum witnessed in the U.S. construction sector at the beginning of 2017 is looking somewhat shabby now. Tepid housing sales data owing to inventory shortage along with two devastating hurricanes (Harvey & Irma) has been causing damage to the industry’s sales pace in recent times. The recent data reflects weakening sales figure with […]
Buyback Stats
Buybacks are surprisingly controversial. You wouldn’t think buybacks would be such a big deal because they are just an alternative way to give excess cash back to shareholders. However, they are blamed for the lack of productivity in the economy and juicing EPS numbers. If firms buyback stock instead of investing in capex, then it […]
Lithium Vs. Oil: An Unstoppable Divergence In The Energy Market
Lithium continues to torch oil in 2017. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (NYSE: LIT) has been hyperbolic all year — up 57% to date. Meanwhile, the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN (NYSE: OIL) is down 16%. The divergence between these two key energy commodities is shocking. See for yourself… So […]
