Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
More Price Action From This Market
I would like more price action from this market, but I can’t force that. I have to wait for that to happen, and to place my trades accordingly. Right now, I don’t want to add additional long exposure, until this market can put together a decent breakout to the upside. Indicators VIX – Not surprising to […]
Dizzying Heights For The YM E-Mini
For nervous investors with a fear of heights, the words of Jesse Livermore echo through the trading ages, as he exhorted fellow traders that a stock was never too high to buy or too low to sell. And the former is of course the more appropriate here, as the YM e-mini futures reflecting the cash […]
Stocks Still Have Strong Low-Inflation/Low-Rates/Improving-Economy Tailwind
Lower Rates Longer When interest rates are low and economic data is improving, stocks typically get an added opportunity-cost boost relative to bonds. From The Wall Street Journal: “Leaders of the world’s largest central banks indicated that weak inflation in advanced economies could prolong the post-crisis era of easy-money policies. Despite a broad-based improvement in the […]
Oil Rally Threatened As China Reportedly Offers To Buy Aramco Stake Directly
Amid confusion over whether the massive Saudi Aramco IPO is on hold until 2019, or permanently shelved in favor of a private placement, Reuters suggests the latter is now more likely as ‘sources familiar with the matter’ say China is offering to buy up to 5 percent of Aramco directly (offering the Saudis the lack of transparency they may have been nervous […]
September 2017 Import Sea Containers Continue To Suggest Improving Economy, Exports Not So Much
The September month-over-month import container counts are still suggesting an improving USA economy, but exports suggest a sluggish global economy. Analyst Opinion of Container Movements Simply looking at this month versus last month – the growth rates improved for both exports and imports. Looking at the three month rolling averages this month shows improvement in […]
The Fed Is Confused About What Drives Inflation
On October 4 2017, the former governor of the Federal Reserve Daniel Tarullo in a speech at the Brookings think-tank in Washington said Fed policy makers do not have a reliable theory of what drives inflation. According to Tarullo, central bankers should pay less attention to theoretical models and more to actual data. However, how […]
Inflation: An X-Ray View Of The Components – Monday, October 16
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how […]
How VarSwaps Work And Why Knowing Is Important
Exchange traded volatility products like ETFs and ETNs continue to grow in popularity, and this rapid expansion into a relatively complex asset class has left many investors confused about some of the fundamental concepts needed to reasonably understand the market that underlies these popular retail products. Equity volatility trading has been around in one form […]
Recession Red Flag Rears Its Ugly Head – Treasury Yield Curve Crashes To Post-Crisis Flats
Probably nothing… The last two times the spread between 30Y and 5Y Treasury bonds was below 90bps, the US economy entered recession… And the 2s10s curve is tumbling too – to its flattest since the crisis… But, but, but, how can a recession be coming with stocks are record highs?
Predicting Dow One Million – Was Warren Buffett Being Bold Or Overly Cautious?
In a recent speech, Warren Buffett came down boldly on the side of optimism when it comes to both the economy and financial markets. What he said was “being short America has been a loser’s game…And it will continue to be a loser’s game.” And to throw down the gauntlet against some the current negative talk in […]
